Saturday’s opening round Jubilee Cup winners in box seat

Above: Marist St Pat's and Northern United shared the 2008 Jubilee Cup after drawing 10-10 in the final. Both teams won their first round Jubilee Cup matches, as most Wellington club championship winners do. 

Will this year’s Jubilee Cup champion be one of the four teams that won their first round matches on Saturday?

Yes, suggest the statistics.

A key factor in the early rounds of the Jubilee Cup has always been that teams must win their early games if they want to be championship contenders at the business end of the season.

The Jubilee Cup is all about momentum; for teams that win their early round-robin games, it's just a short sprint to the playoffs at the end of July.

The statistics back this up - and modern Jubilee Cup history overwhelmingly favours teams that start well in the second round.

In each of the past 18 Jubilee Cups between 1998-2015 the eventual champion (or in 2008 both co-champions) won their first round match.

The last time a team failed to win its first round match and went on to win the Jubilee Cup was in 1997 when MSP lost its opener to Harlequins (OBU) 18-30. That year MSP then lost to Avalon 22-30 in round two, before winning five in a row to qualify third, beating Wests in the semi-final and then winning the final.

The previous year, 1996, Poneke beat Avalon 15-6 in their opening round Jubilee Cup fixture, so in 19 of the past 20 years the eventual winner of the Jubilee Cup has started the championship round in the winner’s circle.

For the four teams that lost last week’s opening round set of matches – defending champions Old Boys University, Tawa, Poneke and Wellington – they will need to break this pattern to go and be crowned champions on 6 August.

While history doesn’t favour the chances of those who lose their Jubilee Cup opener, using the last dozen seasons as our reference point roughly one team per year does go onto to make the semi-finals and give themselves a chance. However, only four times in that span (and three of those by Poneke) has a first-up loser hosted a semi-final. It gets worse for teams that lose both of their openers, as no team in that period has even made the last four from that position.

With the stakes high for some clubs just a week into the second round, this weekend's club rugby in Wellington could be unmissable.

Of the four unsuccessful teams from Saturday, Poneke hosts Tawa at Kilbirnie Park, defending champions Old Boys University travel to William Jones to play Wainuiomata and the Wellington Axemen duel with the Upper Hutt Rams at Maidstone.

First round results at a glance:

• Marist St Pat’s 12 – Tawa 8
• Wainuiomata 15 – Wellington 14
• Oriental-Rongotai 19 – Poneke 15
• Upper Hutt Rams 20 – Old Boys University 18

Second round draw at a glance:

• Poneke v Tawa at Kilbirnie Park
• Oriental-Rongotai v Marist St Pat’s
• Wainuiomata v Old Boys University 
• Upper Hutt Rams v Wellington

Jubilee Cup champions first round results last 20 years:

Year       Jubilee Cup winner Winner’s    Opening Jubilee Cup round result (Win/Loss)
1996       Poneke                                     Poneke beat Avalon 15-6 (W)
1997       Marist St Pat’s                           MSP lost to Harlequins [OBU] 18-30 (L)           
1998       West Roosters                           Wests beat Tawa 61-7 (W)                            
1999       Marist St Pat’s                           MSP beat Petone 26-20 (W)                            
2000       Petone                                      Petone beat Johnsonville 26-15 (W)               
2001       Marist St Pat’s                           MSP beat Norths 46-5 (W)                             
2002       Marist St Pat’s                           MSP beat Ories 12-10  (W)                            
2003       Poneke                                     Poneke beat OBU 62-31 (W)                        
2004       Northern United                         Norths beat Poneke 6-3 (W)                         
2005       Petone                                      Petone beat Poneke 24-7  (W)                      
2006       Northern United                         Norths beat Avalon 48-15  (W)                      
2007       Hutt Old Boys Marist                   HOBM beat Poneke 19-9 (W)                       
2008       MSP/Norths shared                     MSP 4-12 Ories, Norths 26-11 HOBM (W)       
2009       Marist St Pat’s                            MSP beat Ories 30-13 (W)                            
2010       Northern United                          Norths beat Ories 45-23 (W)                          
2011       Oriental-Rongotai                       Ories beat Upper Hutt 38-7 (W)                     
2012       Marist St Pat’s                            MSP beat HOBM 28-11 (W)                         
2013        Tawa                                        Tawa beat Wainuiomata 28-20 (W)                
2014       Hutt Old Boys Marist                    HOBM beat OBU 30-27 (W)                         
2015        Old Boys University                    OBU beat Wellington 30-22 (W)