Premiership odds in NPC competition

Above photo: Both Taranaki and Waikato are among other premiership sides still fighting for a top four spot in the premiership of the NPC. 

With week eight of the NPC starting tonight in Palmerston North, we thought we would look at the premiership team’s chances on making the plays offs, as a do or die situation is upon several teams this weekend.

Scott McLean looks at the odds for each team.  

Canterbury: 1st (35 points)
Remaining: North Harbour (H, RS), Counties Manukau (A)  

Eight points clear at the top of the table only disaster in the form of losing their last two games can stop the road to the title from again going through AMI Stadium. While their loss to Manawatu proved they’re far from infallible, the presence of the Shield will mean they’re unlikely to rest many players against Harbour but it will be interesting to see how they then approach their visit to Pukekohe next weekend. Will they rest players, or stick with their first choice?    

Auckland: 2nd (27 points)
Remaining: Tasman (H), Taranaki (A)  

It’s somewhat curious to see Auckland in this position remembering the manner in which Canterbury thrashed them in round one. Their record has largely been built on the back of beating Championship sides; their lone success against Premiership opponents is a 25-24 win over bottom side Hawkes Bay with losses against both Waikato and Counties Manukau. Their remaining games will dictate where they end up; win both and they’ll host a semi-final, win one and they might do the same or could find themselves going back to Christchurch, lose both and they could miss out entirely. And you get the feeling those chances are almost entirely dependent on the Ioane brothers.    

Taranaki: 3rd (27 points)
Remaining: Wellington (A), Auckland (H)  

Taranaki’s outlook looks pretty much the same as Auckland’s, and should they lose to a much improved Wellington outfit on Sunday they could face the proposition that the Auckland clash on Thursday night would be a must-win to just make the semi-finals. A win over the capital side at the Cake Tin would ease the pressure, but there could still be nervous glances over the shoulder at whatever Counties and Tasman are up to and an uncomfortable wait if they don’t get the result against Auckland.    

Counties Manukau: 4th (25 points)
Remaining: Otago (A), Canterbury (H)  

Their first job is to do the business under the roof at Forsyth Barr, but despite consecutive losses to Canterbury and Auckland the southern men are unbeaten at home this year and justifiably lead the Championship and would like to stay there. A win could see Counties leapfrog both Auckland and Taranaki if the latter pair lose, but equally they could find themselves looking up at Tasman and Waikato on the table should all four of those sides win and they lose.    

Tasman: 5th (22 points)
Remaining: Auckland (A), North Harbour (A), Southland (H) 

Tasman are the only Premiership side with three games remaining, and crucially two of those are against Championship sides. A clean sweep of those could get them a home semi-final if other results went their way, while it’s also entirely possible they could claim as many as eleven competition points from those games, and yet still miss out! The reality is that some combination of results that nets them nine or 10 points will probably be sufficient to make the playoffs but who they play or where might only be known at full-time next Sunday.    

Waikato: 6th (20 points)
Remaining: Hawke’s Bay (H), Wellington (A)  

The Mooloo’s season seems to have just ebbed away. They should have lost the Shield to Taranaki, and after losing to Counties did hand over the Log o’ Wood to Canterbury, then were outclassed by Northland last weekend gifting the Taniwha their first win in two years. Despite that they are still a playoff chance, but equally need for the sides ahead of them to lose both their remaining games (and at least two in the case of Tasman) and bonus point wins are a must. Perhaps of more immediate concern is this weekend’s game where anything better than a loss will secure their Premiership status for next season.    

Hawke’s Bay: 7th (14 points)
Remaining: Waikato (A), Bay of Plenty (H)  

The Magpies are the only team out of playoff contention. However, they can delay confirming an immediate return to the Championship if they beat Waikato this weekend. If they do then it’s all on next weekend, if they don’t then the only thing they will have left to play for is the right to ‘The Bay’ title against their northern cousins.