Pivotal ninth round this Saturday in Wellington club rugby

Round 9 of the Swindale Shield could prove pivotal in determining both the fate of the silverware and which sides qualify for the Jubilee Cup round, with the congested middle of the table providing plenty of discussion and potential outcomes.

The same also applies in the Senior 1 competition, where places in the Hardham Cup are at stake.

This week we take a look at the Premier teams and those in contention for promotion in Senior 1 and what lies in front of them over the next three weeks.

As a reminder; in the event of a tie on competition points for first-place the title and trophy will be shared. If there is a tie between two teams that affects qualification for the Jubilee or Hardham Cups the first tie-breaker is the result of the round-robin match, with points-difference used only if that match was drawn. If three or more are tied then a mini-table method is used.

Premier Swindale Shield

Tawa

Currently: First on 38 points

Road home: Petone (home), OBU (away), Marist St Pat's (away)

Already qualified for the Jubilee Cup, the defending champions are odds-on to retain the Swindale Shield for another year, and could yet equal Norths 2010 record of 53 points out of a possible 55 if they win their remaining matches with bonus points. However, if they drop points in their next two matches they might leave the door just open enough for MSP to snatch the silverware in their final round game. Saturday sees them face Petone in their last home game of the Swindale round.

Marist St Pat's

Currently: Second on 33 points

Road home: Ories (home), Wellington (away), Tawa (home)

Like Tawa the Scarlets have also qualified for the Jubilee Cup, and are the only other side that can realistically claim the Swindale. To do that they need to keep racking up bonus point wins, and hope Tawa drop points to make their game at Kilbirnie on the 31^st something of a title decider. Their first order of business however is the eastern suburbs derby against Ories on Saturday, which is scheduled to be played on the now-neutral turf of Hataitai Park, but once was home to both the pre-merger Marist Brothers and Oriental clubs.

Wainuiomata

Currently: Third on 24 points

Road home: Johnsonville (home), HOBM (away), OBU (home)

Going into the Easter rounds Wainuiomata sat at the foot of the table. A mere five games later they have rocketed to third having collected 21 points in those games with 4 wins following that rollicking 30-all draw with MSP under lights at Porirua Park. While the Swindale title is only mathematically in reach beating Johnsonville this weekend for their? fifth successive win will be large step towards ensuring Jubilee Cup qualification; but if they stumble the could find themselves as low as eighth.

Oriental-Rongotai

Currently: Fourth on 23 points

Road home: MSP (away), Petone (away), Poneke (home)

The nagging feeling is that Ories haven't gotten into stride this year, not helped by being unable to field their first-choice line-up at any stage. Saturday's loss to Tawa resulted in them being dragged back into the mid-table group ahead of this weekend match against MSP. Depending on the outcome of that game and other results they could be as high as third and on the verge of having qualified for the Jubilee Cup, or as low as ninth and on the outside looking in. ?

Petone

Currently: Fifth on 22 points

Road home: Tawa (away), Ories (home), Johnsonville (away)

Petone face the tough ask of the trip to Lyndhurst to take on the competition leaders this Saturday, where, like Ories, a loss combined with other results could see them potentially drop out of the top 8; while an upset win could see them climb as high as third. Their fate may yet come down to their final game against Johnsonville at Helston, while bonus points could prove to be crucial for the Villagers.

Hutt Old Boys Marist

Currently: Sixth on 22 points

Road home: Norths (home), Wainuiomata (home), Wellington (home)

In the Eagles favour is that their remaining games are at home, where two wins should be sufficient to see them qualify after overrunning OBU last week. Each of those games has the potential to be tricky ones to negotiate however, starting with a Norths side that will themselves be desperate to remain in contention. It's HOBM's Old Timers' Day on Saturday, so a polished performance will be hoped for.

Upper Hutt Rams

Currently: Seventh on 20 points

Road home: Poneke (away), Johnsonville (home), Norths (away)

Three weeks ago the Rams were flying high in third place. Their concession of 24 points in the final 15 minutes to HOBM to lose that match has been followed by losses to both Tawa and Petone and they have slumped to seventh. While in their favour is that their remaining games are all against sides presently lower than them on the ladder, there is the question of what the past three weeks have done to their confidence. With that in mind the weekend's trip to Poneke for the Alby Makeham Shield clash borders on a must win for them.

Old Boys-University

Currently: Eighth on 19 points

Road home: Wellington (home), Tawa (home), Wainuiomata (away)

Being in the thick of the qualification dogfight is a scenario that OBU seem to find themselves in each year, and in recent years that fight hasn't treated them well. Last year's Jubilee Cup semi-finalists face a tough run in, with their tilt with the Axemen followed by matches against two of the current top three. They will desperately need to take maximum points this weekend; otherwise it could be another one of those years for the Billy Goats.??

Norths

Currently: Ninth on 18 points

Road home: HOBM (away), Poneke (away), Upper Hutt Rams (home)

Although sitting ninth, Norths are still in control of their own fortunes as a win away against HOBM this weekend could see them climb as high as fourth. Worse case for them would be to lose, and for the four teams immediately above them to all win, which could push the gap to as much as six points and could be too far for them to overcome in their last two games.?

Johnsonville

Currently: Tenth on 9 points

Road home: Wainuiomata (away), Upper Hutt Rams (away), Petone (home)

Poneke

Currently: Eleventh on 9 points

Road home: Upper Hutt Rams (home), Norths (home), Ories (away)

Wellington

Currently: Twelfth on 7 points

Road home: OBU (away), Marist St Pats (home), HOBM (away)

For the bottom three sides the situation is relatively simple, win on Saturday or they may be reduced to the role of spoiler while tuning up for their Hardham Cup campaigns. Wellington can directly help their cause by beating OBU this weekend, while Poneke can do the same in their two home games, but only if they firstly topple the Rams this weekend otherwise their clash with Norths could be meaningless. Johnsonville have the toughest ask this weekend, making the trip over the hill to take on Wainuiomata.

Senior 1 Harper Lock Shield

Avalon

Currently: First on 39 points

Road home: OBU (away), MSP (home), HOBM (away)

Avalon have all-but qualified for a return tilt at the Hardham Cup following their dismantling of Paremata-Plimmerton last Saturday, but their focus will undoubtedly be on maintaining their unbeaten record and ensuring they win the Harper Lock Shield. They could do that as early as this weekend if they beat OBU in the early game at the Ian Galloway cage and depending on MSP's result.

MSP

Currently: Second on 31

Road home: Ories (home), Avalon (away), Tawa (home)

A tough finish with first and third yet to play, but if they bank maximum points against Ories this weekend that should be enough to see them through.

Tawa

Currently: Third on 29

Road home: Petone (home), OBU (away), MSP (away)

Their finish might be tougher than MSP's. The away game against OBU may determine their fortunes but before that they need to beat Petone this weekend to keep their fate in their own hands.

OBU

Currently: Fourth on 26

Road home: Avalon (home), Tawa (home), Wainuiomata (away)

Their aspirations will likely come down to the next two weeks, as they would likely be favourites in their last match against Wainui. If they get a result against Avalon or Tawa they would seem likely to progress, but if they don't then the last game may not matter. And all of this may be moot anyway if their Premier side miss out on the Jubilee Cup

Paremata-Plimmerton

Currently: Fifth on 25

Road home: Upper Hutt Rams (home), Norths (home), Ories (away)

The Ngatitoa side lost control of their Hardham Cup aspirations when beaten by Avalon in the weekend and now sit on the outside looking in going into their Old Timers' Day clash with the Upper Hutt Rams. In their favour their remaining games are all against sides below them on the ladder while the sides above them all have two games against other teams in the top four.

Norths

Currently: Sixth on 22

Road home: HOBM (away), Pare-Plim (away), Upper Hutt Rams (home)

Norths sit only a win adrift of the top-four and could close the gap this weekend. Realistically though they can't afford to drop any games and like OBU their fate may also be determined, irrespective of where they finish, by how their Premier side fares.

The Upper Hutt Rams (20), HOBM (20), and Petone (19) are all also in with a chance, but could be eliminated as soon as this weekend with a loss. The remaining Senior 1 game this weekend is between bottom sides Wainuiomata and Wests in the early game at William Jones.

Other grades

The Wellington Axemen went top of the Senior 2 National Mutual Cup when they toppled previously unbeaten Poneke, and this week take on Johnsonville in the early game at home at Hataitai. In 1.15pm kickoffs Poneke take on Norths, and Petone hosts the winless Upper Hutt Rams. At 3pm Stokes Valley faces OBU at Delaney Park, while at 3.30pm MSP take on promotion-hopefuls Avalon on the St Patricks College artificial. Previous leaders HOBM have the bye this weekend.

The four Women's Fleurs Trophy matches are all 11.30am kickoffs. Ories should have no issues with Poneke at home at the Polo Ground, and nor should Norths when they play Tawa at Redwood. The other two matches look like being much closer with Wainuiomata hosting OBU at Mary Crowther, while Avalon meets Stokes Valley in the Hutt Valley derby at Fraser Park.

The Colts Division 1 Paris Memorial Trophy matches are all in the early Saturday timeslot. The feature match is at Te Whaea at 1pm when unbeaten sides OBU Green and Norths clash. Oriental-Rongotai and Wellington meet at Polo and HOBM takes on Poneke at the Hutt Rec, both at 1.15pm. MSP and Petone meet on the St Patricks artificial at 1.30pm.

In the Under 85kg Division 1 JC Bowl matches there are 1.15pm kickoffs for the MSP Reds against Wellington at Martin Luckie, and Stokes Valley against the Poneke Cavs at Delaney Park. The 3pm kickoffs have the Upper Hutt Rams and MSP Blues meeting at Maoribank, the OBU Spartans against the Tawa Titans at Te Whaea, and the OBU Bunnies are the visitors to HW Shortt for Eastbourne's Old-Timers day.

Lastly, there is also a host of College rugby on, with the 1^st XV action previewed here on Club Rugby yesterday.

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