Is the future of the amateur game of rugby union in New Zealand, in jeopardy?

The Dominion Post newspaper of 26 October 2016 suggested that “the relevance of New Zealand’s national provincial competition is eroding, as the focus switches to schoolboy rugby. The competition is fast losing the selection intrigue it once provided. There is less and less at stake for players now, and that naturally has had an effect on the appeal of the competition in many parts of the country.”

The numbers speak for themselves. Only 18% of the registered rugby players in New Zealand [source: New Zealand Rugby Union data, 2015] that the amateur game relies on to become a member of a community based club are aged 21 years or older, while over half (54%) are aged 12 or less, with most (based on an interpretation of the statistics), likely to change sporting codes once teenagers. Overall, today rugby union is not even in the Top 20 sport and recreation activities of New Zealanders [source Sport New Zealand, Active New Zealand Survey, 2013/2014] – only 3.6% of New Zealanders participate (about the same as Badminton), compared to 6.3% who play soccer. Nearly twice as many New Zealanders play netball, compared to rugby.

In 2011, the New Zealand Rugby Union commissioned a report by BRC Marketing and Social Research Limited in an attempt to understand the reasons for the decline in player numbers across secondary school years and the particularly sharp drop in numbers in the first year of leaving school.

At that time, it was recognised that maintaining as large a pool as possible of rugby players through school age to early adulthood was of vital importance to ensuring the future success of rugby at local, provincial, and national levels. Regardless of the findings of the study, four years later, the number of adult players has continued to fall, while over the same period the number of teenage players has dropped by over 1,000 despite two successive All Black World Cup victories.

Earlier this week, the Dominion Post newspaper also observed that “once upon a time provincial rugby enjoyed an exalted status in New Zealand and the fortunes of sides were followed very closely. Now it's an afterthought.” That status was built on the model that the development pathway for aspiring players relied on their club and province, with most players not attaining the opportunity to represent their union at the top level until some years out of secondary school, having become established as players in their local community. A feature of the 2016 Mitre 10 Cup [Men’s National Provincial Championship competition] has been the large number of players who are still teenagers pursuing (or gaining) professional contracts, while many well-performing non-professional Club stalwarts are arguably not having the opportunity to represent their province at the top table.

If communities have no reason to promote and support players through their local clubs to represent their provincial union, and if players no longer perceive an incentive to keep playing the game to achieve recognition as an amateur (rather than as a professional), it is quite conceivable that in the next 5 to 10 years provincial union rugby will become a historical footnote in the long history of rugby union in New Zealand. And should that occur, the next generation of parents who at present, (mainly fathers with strong club affiliations who are encouraging their children to play rugby at primary school), will diminish. Throughout the country there is ongoing discussion of club closures or amalgamations.

One possible outcome is that the five Super Rugby franchises (as evidenced by next year’s tour itinerary for the British and Irish Lions) will assume the role of representing New Zealand’s former provincial unions. However, few of New Zealand’s 27 Provincial Unions (unless equity participants) are likely to pay obeisance to any one of New Zealand’s five Super Rugby franchises, so long as provincial parochialism remains the life-blood of community based rugby in this country.

And a final thought. Can a diminishing pool of 27,000 adult players in a total population of 4,726,773 continue to ensure All Black global sovereignty without a strong, vibrant and growing amateur game? It is the historic strength of the amateur game, and the incentives and recognition it has provided for players, which has provided the New Zealand Rugby Union with the luxury of building a professional model which is different to other countries.

It’s vital to remember that the New Zealand Rugby Union solely exists as the representative of the provincial unions, with its officials (elected or appointed) accountable to them and no-one else. The provincial unions are accountable to their member clubs in the same way. The clubs are accountable to their communities and members.

Rugby union is a game for all New Zealanders, not only those who are financially rewarded from it. Professional rugby has its place, but not at the expense of the amateur game.