Swindale Shield set to heat up despite wintry forecast

Wintry weather is forecast in Wellington at the end of the week, but it won't be enough to cool down a rapidly developing contest for the Swindale Shield title. With the first dose of wet and cold conditions of the season?predicted this weekend, fans can look forward to several torrid battles across the seventh round set of matches.

Look out for a tough battle at Kilbirnie Park between third placed Poneke and fourth placed Hutt Old Boys Marist in one of two clashes involving teams in the top half of the table. Both come into this game with five wins from six and both are still very much in title contention should leaders Petone slip-up over the?remaining five weeks of the first round. Neither will want to take a backward step and each can point to excellent defensive records, with Poneke conceding an average 14 points a game this year so far and HOBM 16.

This match is also for both the Roy John Trophy and the Bill Brien Cup, which Poneke retained last week in their narrow 13-8 win over the Wests Roosters. Roy John played for Poneke in the 1940s before moving to the Hutt Club. Roy was an outstanding sportsman, representing Wellington at first five eighth and halfback at a time when the whole Hutt club backline made up the Wellington set of backs. He also played senior cricket in Wellington.

It's an important match this weekend for defending champions Marist St. Pat's who last week fell to their second defeat at home this season against frontrunners Petone. A win for them over a resurgent Oriental-Rongotai at the Polo Ground could see them break back into the top four and remain a chance to repeat last year's title success. Ories haven't been this high on the Wellington club rugby points tables since 2003 when they finished runners-up to first time winners Northern United in that year's Swindale Shield.

It's Old Timers' Day at the Petone Recreation Ground and at Ian Galloway Park, where Petone will be gunning to make it seven straight wins and possibly extend their three-point lead at the top of the log, and the Wests Roosters will be chasing an elusive second win and the opportunity to move away from the top eight cut-off zone.

Petone are coming off three excellent victories over HOBM, Poneke (both at home) and MSP (away) and should too strong for the students who have yet to win in 2009 and who were overrun by HOBM last week in their first home game at the Basin Reserve.

The outcome at the Cage between the eighth placed Roosters and ninth placed Tawa could be crucial to both teams' fortunes for the second half of the season. With just a month of the first round to play after this, the race to fill the eight Jubilee Cup places in the second round is only going to intensify and both these sides are in the thick of it.

With both winless Avalon and OBU seemingly out of the top eight race, both Wests and Tawa appear to be in a four-way tussle with Upper Hutt and Wainuiomata to secure the last two places for the Jubilee Cup round.

Wests are currently one spot ahead of Tawa in eighth place, despite them having won once and Tawa twice this season. The Roosters' 26-19 win over Wainuiomata in week four is all they've had to crow about, but they have also drawn one more and earned bonus points for losing by seven points or fewer in each of their four losses. In two examples of their season to date, their 21-24 defeat to HOBM in week one would have been a draw if the Hutt side hadn't kicked a penalty with the last act of the game, and their 10-17 loss to Petone in week three would have been a win if they had taken any of their numerous chances.

Tawa's victories were against Avalon (46-7) and OBU (29-20), and they have since pushed both Poneke and Norths close in the last fortnight at home at Lyndhurst Park. They led Poneke 13-8 at halftime and held them to 13-13 throughout much of the second half before succumbing 13-40. They also competed with Norths for long periods, trailing just 6-14 at halftime before eventually losing 11-37 after a late flurry of Norths scoring.

Both these teams still have some tough challenges waiting for them after this and will be desperate to win. Tawa play Wainuiomata the following week and then end their campaign with matches with Petone, Ories and HOBM, while Wests can look forward to MSP and Norths over the following three weeks.

Both are now well used to the annual mid-table scramble for Jubilee Cup spots. In the last five seasons Wests' highest finish in the Swindale Shield has been fourth (in 2005), while Tawa's has been seventh (2004). But Tawa have also finished eighth in three of these years and have consequently made the Jubilee Cup round in four years out of five compared to Wests' two.

Last year neither made the top eight, Wests finishing the first round in 10^th and Tawa a lowly 11^th. Tawa then enjoyed a golden run in the Premier Two Hardham Cup and swept all before them, including consecutive wins over Wests in the round-robin and semi-finals (24-3 and 33-24)? and beating Wainuiomata 33-20 in the final.

Wests and Tawa are neck-and-neck on five wins each out of their last 10 encounters going back to the 2003 Hardham Cup final, won by Wests 31-15.

In their previous five first round Swindale Shield clashes, Wests have the edge 4-1, including four nail biters in a row in 2005 (28-21), 2006 (22-17), 2007 (13-10) and 2008 (14-11).

Both are stacked with talent and experience. For this game Tawa can call upon such players as Nigel Hunt, New Zealand? U20 player Shaun Treeby and the vastly experienced Willie Lafaele in their backline and long-serving and workhorse No. 8 Iona Fuatai in their forwards. Despite recently losing fullback Toby Robson and hooker Teleti Leota to season ending injuries, the Roosters have in their ranks in-form flanker Galu Taufele, exciting Wellington age-grade fullback Liam Townsend and a three-prong Fijian injection in loose forwards Nemani Waka, and Sai Rokusalu and winger? Isireli Baleitavuki.??

In the other two matches this weekend, Upper Hutt will be favoured to consolidate their seventh placed position and possibly draw level with sixth placed MSP should MSP meet defeat against Ories. Upper Hutt travel down the road to play Avalon and they will probably have too much firepower for their struggling neighbours in this match for the Harper Vine Trophy.

Tenth placed Wainuiomata could have a struggle on their hands to against sixth placed Northern United at home at William Jones Park for the Alf Keating Memorial Trophy.???????????

However both sets of these fans will recall the match between these sides in 2006 when Wainuiomata caused one of the more memorable upsets in recent Wellington Premier rugby when the recently promoted Senior One side shocked Norths 30-29 at Porirua Park.

Another unforgettable match between these two clubs was in 2000? when Wainuiomata beat the Norths Senior One side? 26-5, with their winger? Jonah Lomu helping to attract an estimated 5,000-strong crowd and also scoring two tries.

Expect some movement near the top of the Senior One Harper Lock Shield points table in this round. Unbeaten MSP have been sweeping all before them so far and have already posted 300 points for the season and thus will be favoured to defeat third placed Ories at the Polo Ground. ?Second placed Poneke meet tenth placed HOBM at Kilbirnie Park and fourth placed Rimutaka meet bottom placed Upper Hutt at Maoribank Park for the Darryl Amies Trophy on their Old Timers' Day. Poneke and Rimutaka could both move into clear second and third if all these results go to form.

Fifth placed Johnsonville and sixth placed Norths will also stay in touch for Hardham Cup contention if they can beat Stokes Valley at Delany Park and Paramata-Plimmerton at Ngatitoa Domain respectively.

It's close at the top of the Senior Two National Mutual Cup table, with three points separating the four leading teams. Joint leaders MSP and Norths play Wellington and Wainuiomata respectively, while third placed Tawa meets Wests and fourth placed HOBM meet fifth placed Poneke.

In the first round Women's Premier Fleurs Trophy, Norths return from their bye to play Poneke, while current leaders Johnsonville?might be too strong for mid-table Stokes Valley.