Petone playing for a home semi-final this weekend against Ories

Jubilee Cup leaders Petone could qualify for a home semi-final with a week to spare, while the playoff? fates of at least three of the other four contenders are unlikely to be decided until the last round next week as teams jostle for position in this Saturday's sixth and penultimate round set of matches.

Five of the eight teams are realistically left chasing the four semi-final places over the last fortnight of round-robin play, but in a crowded points table Petone are best placed to decide their fate. Petone on 19 points have a two-point lead to the other four who are separated by just three points with three all bunched together on 14 points.

As such, Petone will officially qualify for the semi-finals with a round to spare if they can beat Oriental-Rongotai at home at the Petone Recreation Ground in this Saturday's Wellington club rugby feature match, while they will likely lock in a top two finish and earn a home semi-final on 1 August if they can beat Ories and also score more or tries.

But the other three Jubilee Cup matches this week are between teams from the top half of the draw against the three bottom teams, meaning that if these results all run to form the semi-final ambitions and order of finishing of second placed Poneke (on 17 points) and Ories, Marist St. Pat's and Norths (all on 14) won't be decided until next week.

With their five-point buffer to these other three contenders, Petone are in a position where they could drop their last two matches and remain on 19 points and still make the top four. But equally the 2004 champions will be eager to continue their winning run of four straight wins after they lost in round one away to Poneke. Petone are coming off a 30-8 win in round five against Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park, the only team who have beaten them at home in eight ?matches all year (in the Swindale Shield round).

They meet an Ories team who overcame HOBM 22-6 at the Polo Ground last week and who will be desperate for more of the same this week as they then turn to face Poneke in the last round. Petone's hard fought 20-10 away victory over Ories in the last round of the Swindale Shield, ensuring Petone a share of the first round title with Norths, will be fresh on both team's minds as well. Both Petone and Ories go into this game with similar attacking records, averaging 28 and 27 points per game respectively, but Ories will have to find a way past Petone's frugal defence has yielded just 46 points in five Jubilee Cup outings so far.

Second placed Poneke will also more than likely qualify for the semi-finals and put themselves in the box seat to push for a home semi-final in the last round if they can overcome Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park. Poneke are coming off a comfortable 65-5 win? against Tawa and will rate their chances while Upper Hutt are playing for pride only in their last home match of 2009 ahead of playing Tawa away in the last round. Both sides scored four tries each but Poneke won 37-22 when they met in round 10 of the Swindale Shield.

MSP are coming off two excellent wins in the past fortnight over Upper Hutt (46-14) and Norths (19-12) and Tawa have suffered three consecutive large defeats at the hands of Ories, Petone and Poneke. So on form, MSP's supporters will see a bonus point win in their match at Lyndhurst Park as a probability. MSP also beat Tawa 55-3 when they met in the Swindale Shield round, winger Brendon Watt scoring five tries. But Tawa could yet have a sting in their tail, especially at home where they are always more dangerous.

Norths couldn't find a way through MSP's steely defence at the end of their match last week, this result opening up the race for the playoffs and once more putting pressure on Norths to respond in what they will be eyeing as a must-win this week against HOBM at the Hutt Recreation Ground. With Norths turning to play Petone in the last round and sixth placed HOBM still alive with a mathematical chance of making the top four, this game could also have plenty of kick in it.

The Hardham Cup spotlight is on the Basin Reserve this week where home team Old Boys University faces Avalon in a key game for both teams and the overall competition.

Old Boys-University became the first team to qualify for the Hardham Cup semi-finals last week after their 19-12 win over Wainuiomata and this week they are playing to lock in a top qualifying finish and home semi-final with a week up their sleeves.

But the importance of this match for Avalon is a lot more serious than the semi-finals, the Hutt Valley side fighting for its survival in the Premier grade in 2010 and beyond. If Avalon lose to OBU then they are gone from the Swindale Shield next season unless Wainuiomata lose to Johnsonville and the Wests Rooster lose to MSP B this Saturday and then they may get a temporary reprieve depending on bonus points. On the positive side, if Avalon beat OBU then they should live to fight another day and then their last round fixture with Johnsonville at home would likely become a virtual promotion-relegation match. In the Swindale Shield round Avalon only won one match and that was against OBU - winning 27-26 at Fraser Park.

If Avalon are relegated it will likely be at the expense of Johnsonville, whose Swindale Shield re-entry destiny is in their hands out at William Jones Park against Wainuiomata. If they beat Wainuiomata they will go up, while if they beat them and score four tries as well they will more than likely grab a top two finish and earn a home semi-final.

However Wainuiomata will be desperate for the win in their last home match of the season or they may miss out on the semi-finals altogether to MSP B who can't be promoted to the Swindale Shield but can still make the playoffs at the expense of any of the other contenders.

The Wests Roosters, who had the services of All Blacks No. 8 Rodney So'oialo in their hard fought win over Poneke B last week, cross the road to meet MSP B at Evans Bay Park in a game that they will targeting for maximum points in their drive for a home semi-final in two weeks.

Poneke B and Rimutaka clash at Kilbirnie Park in the other game of the Hardham Cup sixth round, in a fixture that shouldn't have any bearing on the top four or promotion-relegation race - although Rimutaka are still alive if they win their last two games and other results got their way.

It's semi-final time this weekend in the Premier Women's Victoria Tavern grade, where top qualifier Northern United host fourth placed qualifier Stokes Valley at Porirua Park in one semi-final and second placed Eketahuna will have home ground advantage against third placed Johnsonville.

It's also the semi-finals of the the U21 Division 2 Vic Calcinai Memorial Trophy, where top qualifier Norths White and Poneke 2 meet in one semi-final at Porirua Park and Poneke 1 and OBU White play in the other.

It's round six of the nine-round Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup this weekend, where leaders Petone will be gunning for their sixth consecutive win of the competition against fifth placed Paremata-Plimmerton at Ngatitoa Domain. Petone have been in cracking form in this grade so far, so far scoring 196 points and conceding just 32 in five games.

Second placed Ories, who overcame HOBM in a big match last weekend, will be favoured to beat low ranking Norths at Porirua Park and keep their drive for the semi-finals alive. Third placed Stokes Valley will also be expected to win well, against struggling Upper Hutt at Delaney Park and fourth placed HOBM will be chasing their fourth win against mid-table OBU.

There are also four regular season rounds to play in the Senior 2 HD Morgan Trophy, starting this Saturday with new leaders Wellington facing fifth placed Poneke at Hataitai Park. But such is the closeness of this grade at the moment just three points separate front runners Wellington (on 20 points) and Poneke (17 points).

Joint second placed Wainuiomata (18 points) could capture the lead at the end of this round if Poneke beat the Axemen and Wainuiomata beats winless and struggling Johnsonville as expected. Of the other frontrunners, Paremata-Plimmerton (18) and OBU (17) clash at Ngatitoa Domain in another match that could separate the Senior 2 field.

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