Much to play for in final round this weekend

Three into two won't go. That's the equation facing Marist St. Pat's, Northern United and Oriental Rongotai as they prepare for this weekend's seventh and last round set of Jubilee Cup matches, hoping to join Petone and Poneke in the semi-finals.

With frontrunners Petone already qualified for the semi-finals and Poneke all but assured baring an improbable set of results, the battle is on in round seven for the three chasing teams to grab the next two spots, and for either Marist St. Pat's or Northern United to leapfrog Poneke into the second home semi-final position behind Petone.

In a pressure-cooker final round of Jubilee Cup play three of the four games have a direct bearing on the outcome of the top four composition, with only the outcome of the Tawa v Upper Hutt fixture at Lyndhurst Park not affecting the playoff permutations.

Tawa, Upper Hutt and Hutt Old Boys Marist have already booked their trips to the beach next week, but the dreams of the other five teams of playing in the Westpac Stadium final on 9 August are still alive. This week the neutral Stadium venue was reinstated by the Wellington Rugby Union as the host of the Jubilee and Hardham Cup finals after financial constraints previously forced officials to turn elsewhere.

Leaders Petone sealed one of the semi-final spots with their fifth win in six games of the second round last week against Ories who chances are weak. The best Ories can hope for is fourth and then a possible return encounter at the Petone Recreation Ground next Saturday.

In other last round games, Norths meet Petone at Porirua Park, Ories host Poneke at the Polo Ground and MSP and HOBM clash at Evans Bay Park.

The pressure is on Norths to beat Petone or risk missing out on the Jubilee Cup playoffs for the first time since 2002. If they lose to Petone and Ories beats Poneke with a bonus point then they are likely gone.

With many clubs missing their frontline players to All Blacks and Vodafone Wellington Lions duty for the remainder of the season, Norths are perhaps hardest hit of all, with 10 of their team named in Jamie Joseph's 27-man Vodafone Wellington Lions ANZC squad on Thursday. Last week fullback James So'oialo was the toast of Porirua Park with his late converted try scored off a HOBM dropped ball, a try that if not scored would have made the look of this week's games much different.

The composition of the Vodafone Wellington Lions' squad by club is (the squad does not include All Blacks): Norths 10 players; MSP 3; Poneke 3; Tawa 2; Upper Hutt 2; Ories 2; HOBM 2; Petone 1; OBU 1; Wests 1.

Lat year Norths were in a remarkably similar situation as they are in now and duly pulled through, scraping past Poneke 12-11 in the last round and then earning an away semi-final against Petone the following week which they won 18-5 and then going on to grab a share of the title. In the first round Petone reversed this with a 30-25 win in week two of the Swindale Shield. If Petone win they will retain the Bill Brien Challenge Cup for the summer and win the Andy Leslie Trophy for finishing top at the end of the round-robin.

Norths' last round win over Petone in 2008 also shut Ories out of what would have been their first semi-final appearance since 2002, circumstances that they will be desperately wanting to reverse against their old foe Poneke this week. Like Petone, second placed Poneke have only dropped one game in the Jubilee Cup round, losing 8-18 to Norths six weeks ago, and the red and blacks won't want to relinquish a home semi-final berth where they would be especially formidable.

For Ories, their route to the top four is also made harder as they require a Norths loss to qualify regardless of them beating Poneke. Then there's the matter of them needing to score four tries against Poneke, who have only conceded four or more tries in three of 17 matches played all year to date. However, one of these and Poneke's heaviest defeat of the season was against Ories in week nine of the Swindale Shield at Kilbirnie Park when they leapt to a 17-3 halftime lead and eventually outscored Poneke four tries to none to capture both the Jim Grbich and Bill Brien trophies.

Of MSP, Norths and Ories, MSP are probably best placed to get up and leapfrog Poneke for a home semifinal if they can overcome Marist rivals HOBM at home at Evans Bay Park. Current form dictates that they will, having enjoyed three solid wins in succession of late against Upper Hutt (46-14), Norths (19-12) and Tawa (52-10). But HOBM will be hoping to end their season on a high before they hit the sand buckets next week after four consecutive losses including games they could have won against Poneke (29-31) and Norths (17-23).

MSP can still lose to HOBM and finish ahead of Norths in third if Norths fails to overcome Petone, which would then most likely pit them against Poneke across the road in the semi-finals.

The semi-finalists have already been decided in the Hardham Cup, but three teams are all? still jostling for the right to earn the second home semi-final behind confirmed top qualifier Old Boys-University.

With a seven point buffer to the rest of the field, the students go into the last round of the Premier 2 competition against Poneke B at the Basin Reserve playing to keep them second round winning record intact. They are also going head to head with the Petone Jubilee Cup team to win the miserly medal as the Jubilee and Hardham Cup team to concede the fewest amount of points at the end of the regular season. As it stands OBU have conceded 56 points or 8 points a game and Petone has let in 64 points or just over 9 points a game.

The OBU - Poneke fixture is also the only Hardham Cup game of the three this weekend ?that doesn't have any bearing on the other three and the their rivals' ambitions for home semi-finals; OBU are guaranteed top spot and Poneke bottom no matter what the outcome.

With the other three semi-finalists the Wests Roosters, Wainuiomata and Johnsonville, all on 17 points, bonus points will likely decide who gets to host the second semi-final. All three play teams from the bottom half of the standings, with the Roosters hosting Rimutaka at Ian Galloway Park, Wainuiomata travelling to Evans Bay Park to meet MSP B and Johnsonville playing Avalon at Helston Park, the team they have just displaced in next year's Swindale Shield.

In the event of two of the three or all three of these teams finishing on the same number of points, the order of finishing and the home semi-finalist will be decided on whom beat whom in the round-robin or by a circular tie.

This could get interesting, as earlier in the Hardham Cup Wests beat Wainuiomata and lost to Johnsonville and Wainuiomata beat Johnsonville.

Meanwhile in other grades, the Women's Premier Division 1 (Victoria Tavern Trophy) and 2 finals both take place this Saturday 25 July at Porirua Park so as to provide a focal point for the women's season.

Kick-off in the 2nd division final is at 11am on Porirua Park No. 2 between Petone and Marist St. Pat's (note the Club Weekly previously incorrectly reported Poneke and not MSP), while Norths play Eketahuna in the Victoria Tavern Trophy final on the No. 1 ground at 12.30pm.

There's three rounds still to play in both the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup and Senior 2 HD Morgan Trophy, where respective leaders Petone and Wellington will be hoping to add to their tally of wins.

Unbeaten Petone (on 28 points) could conceivably book top spot and a home semi-final this week if they can beat second placed Stokes Valley (21)? in the match of the round at the Petone Recreation ground.

At the same time, third placed Ories (20) meet fifth placed OBU (14) at the Polo Ground, while fourth placed Tawa (16) plays lowly Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park,? meaning there could at least be some movement for the minor placings.

With six points separating the leading group of six teams, there's much interest in the Senior 2 competition, especially with another top of the table clash this weekend between frontrunners Wellington (24 points) and Wainuiomata (23) at Wainuiomata. At the same time fourth placed OBU (20) play joint fourth placed Norths (18) at Porirua and the other two teams also on 18 points, Paremata-Plimmerton and Poneke clash at Kilbirnie.