Crunch fourth round for semi-finals hopefuls

Supporters of the three unbeaten teams in the two leading Wellington club rugby competitions - Oriental-Rongotai and Poneke in the Jubilee Cup and Old Boys-University in the Hardham Cup - will be confident of their sides safely progressing to the semi-finals if they win again this Saturday.

But it's a different story for the chasing teams in both competitions, all facing crunch fourth round of matches and whose playoff aspirations and chance for title glory in early August could be gone if they lose this weekend.

At the forefront of these equations are the three winless teams - Petone and Upper Hutt in the Jubilee Cup and HOBM B in the Hardham Cup. These three sides are officially in must-win territory this weekend or their non-playoff participation will fast become reality over the three rounds still to play after this.

The pressure also falls on those teams currently with one win and two losses - Hutt Old Boys Marist and Wainuiomata in the Jubilee Cup and Avalon, Wests, Tawa and Rimutaka in the Hardham Cup.

The positive factor for the fans of all these contenders to consider is that there is a maximum of 20 points still on offer, plenty available for them to make a late charge through the pack. The negative is the statistics from recent history that point to their likely fate if they emerge from this Saturday's fourth round sets of matches with one win-three loss records: Of 32 Jubilee Cup semi-finalists in the eight seasons between 2003-2010 just two - Poneke in 2005 and Petone in 2010 - have lost three of their first four round-robin games and still gone on to make the playoffs.

For winless sides, Petone and Upper Hutt in the Jubilee Cup and HOBM B in the Hardham Cup, their fate is starker: win this week or almost certainly bow out of playoff contention.

Although the precedent for them was set just last year?by Avalon, who were just struggling for survival and were seemingly down when they had yet to register a victory from their first four matches in 2010. They then grabbed their first win in round five 18-17 over HOBM B, then a 10-3 win over Johnsonville and lastly a 36-17 victory over MSP B and the stars aligned in Avalon's favour. The fourth placed qualifiers then upset favourites Wests 11-10 in the semi-final.

Petone, who have made the Jubilee Cup semi-finals every year since 2004, head to Norths to play the team they beat 20-19 in the 2005 final to win the most recent of their 22 Jubilee Cup titles. Just a month ago in the last round of the Swindale Shield Petone held Norths to a 32-32 draw. But for Norths that match had nothing on it as they already had the Swindale Shield in the bag, plus it wasn't at Porirua where Norths have been dominant over most?sides?not least?Petone.

The history of results between these two sides at Porirua Park heavily favours Norths. Of their last 10 meetings there going back to 2004, Norths have won seven, Petone two and there has been one draw. Norths won 13-8 the last time these sides met at Porirua in the first round last year.

Similarly, Upper Hutt must defeat frontrunners Poneke at their Kilbirnie Park lair if they are to have show of reaching the semi-finals for the first time since 2005, a mightily tough task and even more so if it's wet. After qualifying for the Jubilee Cup reasonably comfortably in the end off the back of six wins and some other narrow defeats - including a 19-20 loss to Poneke in the first round at Maidstone Park for the Alby Makeham Shield - Upper Hutt has yet to get off the mark in the Jubilee Cup.

HOBM B, who won the Harper Lock Shield with nine wins from 11 games, can start their winning run at home at the Hutt Recreation Ground against Avalon. But Avalon will be just as desperate for victory to break free from the Hardham Cup chasing pack and also avoid the spectre of relegation.

Meanwhile, there's two other huge clashes in this week's Jubilee Cup, in the main game at the Hutt Recreation Ground and in town at Evans Bay Park.

HOBM's Jubilee Cup team can almost certainly break into the top four zone if they defeat Wainuiomata in this crucial home match, while Wainuiomata will be searching to get their campaign back on track after back-to-back defeats to Poneke and MSP in which they have failed to pick up any bonus points. If Wainuiomta can recapture that winning feeling against the side that pipped them 24-23 just four weeks ago, then they can return home to William Jones for two consecutive home games against Norths and Upper Hutt.

At Evans Bay Park, Ories can stamp their claim for the title success against a rapidly improving MSP that will be searching for its third consecutive bonus point win and a spot firmly inside the top half of the field.

If Ories win they will be safely inside the top four, and probably safe for a semi-final sport, but they could conceivably be leapfrogged by both MSP by Poneke and find themselves having slipped from outright leaders to fourth equal with Norths. Similarly, a loss for MSP and other results going against them will likely see them slip at least one spot. Ories beat MSP 14-3 at the Polo Ground when they met in the first round.

Every game in the Hardham Cup is key to the competition standings this week. As well as the HOBM B v Avalon clash at the Hutt Rec, there's some potentially season defining clashes at all three of the other venues.

The Wests Roosters will need to pick themselves up from the disappointment of letting Avalon off the hook and grabbing a last-gasp draw when they host unbeaten Old Boys-University at the Cage. Depending on other results, a win for OBU, with or without a bonus point, could just about cement their place in the Hardham Cup semi-finals with three rounds to spare.

The Roosters will do themselves a massive favour by beating OBU or at least picking up a couple of points against them or they could be leapfrogged into the relegation zone by both Tawa and Premier hopefuls Rimutaka who will both be lining up victories in their games.

Rimutaka meet Poneke B at Kilbirnie Park in the curtain-raiser to the Jubilee Cup game, opposition they will be lining up to beat if they wish to make next year's Swindale Shield. After winning their first two games, Poneke lost out to Tawa last week, while Rimutaka lost their opening two clashes but beat Norths B last week. In the first round Harper Lock Shield Rimutaka beat Poneke 29-27.

After two losses, Tawa finally got on the board last week when they beat Poneke B and face another of the B sides in the Norths Second XV in the curtain raiser to the Jubilee Cup match at Porirua Park. If Tawa lose this against the Norths B side that has had two wins and a close loss and other results go against them then they are in real trouble. This could be a cracker.

In other grades this weekend, unbeaten Petone and Johnsonville can get a jump on the field if they win their fourth consecutive matches in the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup. Petone plays Paremata-Plimmerton away at Ngatitoa Domain, who have won two from three, while Johnsonville hosts winless Wainuiomata at home at Helston Park.

Similarly, the Wellington Axemen and HOBM can clinch their fourth straight victories in the HD Morgan Memorial. Wellington plays Petone, who have won win from three away, and HOBM travels to play winless Johnsonville in the early match at Helston Park.