Final fortnight of club rugby set to reach fever pitch

A highly competitive second round Jubilee Cup could come to a head as early as this weekend, but, in the case of the Hardham Cup at least, both the playoff and promotion-relegation battle looks set to go do into the final round.

There will be no love lost in the Jubilee Cup, where Oriental-Rongotai became the first team to officially qualify for the playoffs on 30 July by winning their fifth straight second round victory last week against Poneke.

Below Ories there are still six teams to varying degrees chasing three spots. If Ories beats Northern United this weekend and Poneke beats Marist St. Pat's, then Ories and Poneke will be guaranteed the two home semi-finals berths with a week to spare.

In the Hardham Cup, unbeaten Old Boys-University are clear frontrunners and have already booked a home semi-final with two rounds go. But below them just three points separate the second and seventh placed sides, and of these four are battling it out for three spots in next year's Swindale Shield.

It all adds up to a massive round of matches across the region this weekend and here are the calculations for each side:

Jubilee Cup


Oriental-Rongotai

Currently: first on 23 points

Road home: Northern United (away), Wainuiomata (home)

With five wins from five, Ories are the only team to have qualified for the semi-finals so far.
Ories can guarantee themselves a home semi-final at the Polo Ground if they beat or draw with Norths away at Porirua Park this weekend.
If they lose to Norths and MSP beat Poneke, Ories will still be the leaders heading into their last round clash against Wainuiomata.
If Ories lose to Norths and Poneke beat MSP then Ories could still have a share of the lead with Poneke, but they would need to beat Wainuiomata at home in the last round to ensure a home semi-final the following week.


Poneke

Currently: second on 20 points

Road home: Marist St. Pat's (home), Northern United (home)

In Poneke's favour is that their last two regular season games of the year are at fortress Kilbirnie Park.
Balancing that out is their opposition in the last two rounds - Norths and MSP. Both will be extremely tough games for the red and blacks.
Poneke will make the semi-finals if they beat MSP this weekend.
Poneke will earn a home semi-final with one round to spare if they beat MSP this weekend and Ories beat Norths
Poneke can still qualify for the semi-finals this weekend with a round to spare if they lose to MSP and fourth placed HOBM lose to seventh placed Petone.


Northern United

Currently: third on 17 points

Road home: Ories (home), Poneke (away)

If Norths beat Ories at home this weekend they can finish no lower than fourth and will thus qualify for the semi-finals with a week up their sleeve.
If Norths lose to Ories and HOBM defeat Petone then Norths will slip from third to fourth - and then potentially be locked in a fight with MSP and even Petone to hold on to fourth in the last round if MSP beats Poneke and Petone steamrolls HOBM this weekend.
If Norths lose to Ories and MSP also lose to Poneke Norths will still qualify for an away semi-final with a week to spare.


Hutt Old Boys Marist

Currently fourth on 14 points

Road home: Petone (away), Upper Hutt (away)

In qualifying for the semi-finals from here, HOBM have to fly the coop and play their last two matches away from home at the Petone Recreation Ground and Maidstone Park
If HOBM beat Petone this weekend and MSP lose to Poneke then HOBM will make the semi-finals with a week to spare - and if Norths also win, the top four will be decided.
If HOBM lose to Petone this weekend and MSP also beat Poneke then HOBM will be in a last round shoot-out with MSP and possibly Norths for the fourth placed position and will likely have to beat Upper Hutt in the last round.
HOBM can still be in the race to finish as high as second for a home semi-final if they beat Petone and MSP beat Poneke and/or Norths beat Ories.

Marist St. Pat's

Currently fifth on 11 points

Road home: Poneke (away), Petone (home)

MSP realistically need to win both their last two matches to qualify for the semi-finals, but could still qualify if they win just one of these and HOBM lose their two remaining matches
However If MSP lose to Poneke this Saturday and both Norths and HOBM win then MSP's campaign will be over a week early.
MSP could finish as low as sixth if they lose to Petone and seventh placed Wainuiomata also beat Upper Hutt this weekend, which would be MSP's lowest finish since 2006 when they limped home in seventh (and then won the round-robin by four points in 2007).

Petone

Currently sixth on 8 points

Road home: HOBM (home), MSP (away)

Currently six points back from fourth placed HOBM, Petone could still mathematically still make the semi-finals if they win both their last two matches (even without bonus points) and both HOBM and MSP lose their last two matches.
This is made more feasible given that they play HOBM and MSP in their last two matches - so their last round match at Evans Bay Park could become a virtual semi-final showdown with one ear on the wireless to see if Upper Hutt can knock over HOBM!
If they lose their last two matches, and seventh placed Wainuiomata wins one of their last two and Upper Hutt finishes with two wins then Petone could yet collect the wooden spoon.


Wainuiomata

Currently seventh on 6 points

Road home: Upper Hutt (home), Ories (away)

Mathematically, Wainuiomata will need to win their last two matches, preferably with bonus points, and hope that HOBM lose both their last two and MSP and Petone at least one.
Wainuiomata meet top and bottom in the last fortnight, in last placed Upper Hutt and leaders Ories.
If HOBM beat (or draw with) Petone then its lights out for Wainuiomata regardless if they beat Upper Hutt in their last home match this weekend. However, Wainuiomata can still finish as high as fifth even if Petone and MSP don't collect any further points and they beat Upper Hutt with a bonus point this weekend and collect a losing bonus point against top dog Ories at the Polo Ground in the last round.
Equally, Wainuiomata could collect the wooden spoon if they lose their last two matches and Upper Hutt wins one of them and at least gains bonus points from the other.


Upper Hutt

Currently eighth on 1 point

Road home: Wainuiomata (home), Hutt Old Boys Marist (home)

A season of close results and ‘what ifs' mean Upper Hutt can't be saved by the calculator - they are only team officially out of the running for the semi-finals heading into the final fortnight.
However with both their last two matches are at home at Maidstone Park - one of two clubs along with Poneke with two home matches to finish - Upper Hutt can finish with a flourish.
Two bonus point wins against Wainuiomata and HOBM could place them as high as sixth, ahead of Petone and Wainuiomata who would need to lose their last two matches for this to happen
If they beat Wainuiomata this week with a bonus point they could draw level with them and hand them the wooden spoon if both clubs also lose out in the last round.

Hardham Cup

Old Boys-University

Currently: First on 23 points

Run home: Northern United B (away), Avalon (home)

Old Boys-University can rest on their laurels over the next two weeks safe that they have already earned a home semi-final on 30 July.
OBU have been running a good playbook over the last five weeks and with an 11-point lead to second placed Avalon have already booked the top qualifier's berth.
In five games, OBU have scored 158 points and conceded 45. Two years ago when they won seven from seven in the Hardham Cup and went on to win the final, they scored a total of 178 points and conceded 56.


Poneke B

Currently second on 12 points

Run home: Wests Roosters (home), Norths B (home)

Whilst their participation as a ‘B' team rules them out of the promotion-relegation battle, the Poneke FC will be seriously entertaining a Hardham Cup semi-final if they beat the Wests Roosters this weekend in the first of two home games at Kilbirnie Park to finish their season.
If they beat the Wests Roosters with a bonus point they could qualify for a semi-final with a round to spare. But if Avalon and Noths B also win in round six they could go to 17 and 16 respectively and the race would still be on next week.
If they beat the Roosters with a bonus point and OBU beat Norths B they are guaranteed to finish no lower than third no matter what happens in the last round.
If they beat the Roosters with or without a bonus point and Avalon lose to Rimutaka they will be second heading into the last round and then they would just need to beat Norths B in the last round to earn a home semi-final.
If Poneke ‘B' lose to Wests and fails to collect any competition points, they could still be inside the top four at the end of round six.


Avalon

Currently third on 12 points

Run home: Rimutaka (home), Old Boys-University (away)

If Avalon lose this weekend against Rimutaka at Fraser Park and if Wests and Tawa win theirs then Avalon could slip from third (currently behind Poneke B on who beat whom) to seventh. If they lose to Rimutaka they are certain to slip outside the top four.
Avalon realistically need to win their last home game of the regular season against Rimutaka to make the semi-finals or they could be leapfrogged by up to four teams below them (above) and then face needing to beat frontrunners OBU in the last round.
Of the four teams still in the unwanted mix of fighting it out for three places in the Swindale Shield next year (after OBU), Avalon could either end this weekend ahead of the pack or behind the other three.

Northern United B

Currently fourth on 11 points

Run home: Old Boys-University (home), Poneke B (away)

Norths B will at least be eyeing up bonus points from their clash against unbeaten OBU at Porirua Park this weekend or they could fall down the field from fourth to seventh and be leapfrogged by Wests, Tawa and Rimutaka if each of these teams win in round six.
Norths B would reach the semi-finals with a round to spare if they beat OBU with a bonus point this weekend and Poneke B shut out the Wests Roosters.
If Norths B beat OBU this weekend, with or without a bonus point, and both Wests beat Poneke B and Rimutaka beat Avalon then they would be playing for a semi-final against Poneke B in the last round.

Wests Roosters

Currently fifth on 10 points

Run home: Poneke B (away), Tawa (home)

The Wests Roosters will be running around in a flap if they lose to Poneke B this weekend. Not only would a home semi-final be gone but they would be in danger of missing out on the semi-finals altogether.
A loss for the Roosters and wins for joint sixth placed Rimutaka and Tawa would put Wests last of the five teams still locked in the promotion-relegation race. Not only make their last round clash with Tawa a must-win but they could also be relying on Rimutaka losing their final match against HOBM B.
On the positive side, Wests could beat Poneke B with a bonus point and finish this weekend as high as second and safely into semi-final contention if Avalon and Norths B also lose.
If Wests beat Poneke B with a bonus point and either Avalon beat Rimutaka or HOBM B beat Tawa then Wests will be safe from relegation.



Rimutaka

Currently sixth on 9 points

Run home: Avalon (away), HOBM B (home)

The Rimutaka Rams will just about reach their goal of making the Swindale Shield if they beat Avalon at Fraser Park this weekend. A bonus point win could lift them to as high as third if Norths B, Tawa and either Wests or Poneke B, who play each other, lose their games.
Rimutaka could at least create their own destiny if they beat Avalon; returning home the following week to beat HOBM B would likely be enough to extend their season.
However a defeat this weekend could spell the end of their challenge, depending on how other results pan out in round six. It would at the least leave them relying on other results going their way in the last round.


Tawa

Currently seventh on 9 points

Run home: HOBM B (home), Wests Roosters (away)

Tawa will feel that they simply have to win this weekend in their last regular season home match of the season against HOBM B. Should Tawa lose and either the Wests Roosters and Rimutaka above them win then Tawa head into the last round needing to beat the Roosters away at Ian Galloway Park.
Should Tawa lose in round six and fail to earn any bonus points and Wests and Rimutaka both win with bonus points it would be the end of the line for Tawa in 2011 regardless of what happens in the last round.
Should Tawa lose in round six and Wests and Rimutaka both win but without scoring four tries it could come down to the last round with Tawa needing a bonus point victory against Wests to stay up. Conceivably, this last round Tawa-Wests match could turn into a straight promotion-relegation clash.
Of course, should Tawa beat HOBM B they could be safe and it could be Wests, Rimutaka and even Avalon (given that they play OBU) in the gun in the last round.


Hutt Old Boys Marist B

Currently eighth on 4 points

Run home: Tawa (away), Rimutaka (away)

Remarkably, HOBM B could still make the semi-finals if they win their last two matches with bonus points and any four of the six teams above them -Poneke B, Avalon, Norths B, Wests, Rimutaka and Tawa - all drop away over the final fortnight.
Whilst very unlikely for this to happen, first round Harper Lock Shield champions HOBM B are a massive danger to their last two opponents Tawa and Rimutaka and could quite easily at least finish as high as fifth or sixth with a strong finish.
Like their Jubilee Cup counterparts, HOBM B could at least hold sway over the finishing order and in this case the promotion-relegation battle and if nothing else maximum disruption will be their goal over the final fortnight.
If they beat Tawa this weekend they will throw the cat among the pigeons, or in this case the Eagles, while if Rimutaka lose this weekend to Avalon they will have the chance to do it all again in the last round.