This season's Swindale Shield is proving as wide open as its been for several years, but the race to the title could become clearer after this Saturday's ninth round set of matches.
With four of the five current frontrunners set to clash on Saturday and the fifth set down to play a desperate Norths at Porirua there could be some significant movement on the points table later in the day.
There's 15 competition points up for grabs for each side over the final three rounds and as it stands there's just six competition points separating the leading five contenders, so rugby fans won't want to miss any of it before they head to Westpac Stadium to watch the Hurricanes take on the Rebels from 5.30pm.
In Swindale Shield round nine action, leaders HOBM (on 32 points) host fifth placed Ories (26) at the Hutt Recreation Ground, second placed Marist St Pat's (30) host third placed Upper Hutt (29) and fourth placed Wainuiomata (27) travel to play seventh placed Norths (17). All are crucial games.
HOBM could open up as much as a four-point lead at the top of the standings should they beat Ories for the Inagural Bondy Memorial Trophy, and with minnows Rimutaka to come next week it would likely be a title winning lead.
Similarly, Ories will likely bow out of the Swindale Shield title race with a defeat to the Eagles so they will be hungry for their third consecutive competition win against an HOBM side whose only defeat so far was to Norths three weeks ago.
The Bondy Memorial Trophy commemorates Don Bond who passed away last year, just a few weeks before Ories won the Jubilee Cup. Bond was the patron of Ories, being a former Ories player, Club Captain, WRFU delegate, Life Member, President and Chairman and a member for over 55 years. He was also a Wellington Colts, B and A representative team Manager.
Ories and HOBM met three times last year. All were epic encounters and Ories won all three, prevailing 14-10 in the Swindale Shield, 36-31 in the Jubilee Cup round-robin and a 18-15 in the Jubilee Cup semi-finals. Ories have also won each of their last four clashes on the Hutt Rec, so will be going for five in a row there.
If Ories beat HOBM then either MSP or Upper Hutt will be the new leaders with a fortnight to play.
Upper Hutt (275 points) and MSP (243 Points) have the best two attacking records in this year's Swindale Shield to date, so this could be a cracking match for the Bill Brien Challenge Cup between two teams who both like to run the ball and play positive rugby.
With away matches to come against Tawa and Petone, MSP play their last game of the first round at home while Upper Hutt have Poneke across the road at Kilbirnie Park and OBU at home after this.
To beat MSP, Upper Hutt must break a decade long 16-game losing streak against them. Upper have not beaten MSP in Swindale Shield or Jubilee Cup matches since May 2002 when they won 29-19 at Maidstone Park.
They came close to breaking it in this corresponding match last year but had to watch as MSP first five-eighth Fa'atonu Fili sent a match winning penalty through the bar on fulltime and they lost 16-15. MSP went on to win their Jubilee Cup clash 30-3.
In another huge round nine game, seventh placed Norths are in danger of slipping outside the top eight if they don't beat Wainuiomata at home in their match for the Alf Keating Memorial Trophy after the player who formerly played for both clubs.
Conversely, victory for either side will probably be enough to seal spots in the top eight for the second round. For Wainuiomata, they could climb to as high as second, while Norths can only improve one spot from seventh to sixth but they could be out of danger of finishing outside the top eight.
Last year, these sides met twice with two contrasting outcomes. In the first round Norths won 64-12 and in the second round they fought out a 7-7 draw, Wainuiomata coming back late in a match that was played in horrid conditions to score an equalising converted try.?
In two other memorable clashes, Wainuiomata caused one of the more memorable upsets in recent Wellington Premier rugby in 2007 when the then recently promoted Senior 1s shocked Norths 30-29 at Porirua Park. In 2000? Wainuiomata beat the Norths Senior 1 side? 26-5, with their winger? Jonah Lomu helping to attract an estimated 5,000-strong crowd and also scoring two tries.
It'll also be a tense affair at the Hawkins Basin Reserve in the match between home side Old Boys University and Poneke for the Beet Algar Rosebowl.
This is a match between eighth placed OBU (17 points) and 10th placed Poneke (13). Should they lose, OBU will probably live to fight another day in their bid to regain their Jubilee Cup status, but Poneke probably won't if they go down.
The key to victory for both OBU and Poneke can be found in their statistics. This match pits the second and third best defensive teams in the competition against each other, but equally the two with the 10th and 11th worst attacking records.
Defensively MSP are the leading side having conceded 121 points their eight games, with Poneke the next miserly with 132, just ahead of OBU with 134. At the attacking end of the park, only minnows Rimutaka with 21 points have scored fewer points than OBU and Poneke who have both scored 124 points.
The silverware they are playing for is named after Beet (short for Beethoven after the musician) Algar, who was heavily involved with the Poneke club. He was the captain of the senior side from 1919-22. When he retired from the game he was a key administrator of the club. Up until his passing in 1978 he was the club's patron. His brother Doug also represented Wellington. Poneke are the holders having won 18-14 last year.
Tawa and Petone meet at the Petone Recreation Ground in another game with significant consequences for the make-up of the top eight.Sixth placed Petone (18) will probably be safely through to the Jubilee Cup if they beat ninth placed Tawa (15) who will be left fighting it out over the final fortnight if they fail to take the points.
Both are coming off contrasting round eight results, with Petone drawing 18-18 with OBU and Tawa beating Rimutaka 56-0. Though three points behind Petone, Tawa have three wins and Petone two - although Petone have also had two draws.
History suggests a free flowing encounter between Tawa and Petone. The head-to-head ledger from their past six Swindale Shield clashes stands at two wins to Petone (in 2008 and 2009), two to Tawa in 2006 and 2011 and two draws (21-21 in 2007 and 33-33 in 2010).
Their previous two clashes have both gone down to the wire, Tawa fullback Randall Bishop kicking a winning penalty on fulltime to give his side a 16-15 win last year and a 33-33 draw in 2010 the result after a death-knock Petone penalty attempt hit the upright and missed. Tawa's 2006 win was a memorable 46-21 eight try extravaganza.
In the round's other match, Wests Roosters supporters will be hoping their mercurial side can come away with maximum points against Rimutaka in their inaugural Premier clash at Ian Galloway Park.
Should they gain maximum points, the Roosters (11 points) could climb from 11th to ninth ahead of home and away matches to come against Tawa and Wainuiomata. But if they lose their Jubilee Cup challenge will be over.
In their Hardham Cup clash last year, Wests won 27-11 at the Cage.?
Harper Lock Shield
There's also two battles going within the Senior 1 Harper Lock Shield, and like in the Swindale Shield they're both ramping up a notch this weekend.
As well as the fight? to win it, the scrap going on to finish inside the top four and make the Hardham Cup is just as exciting.
As it stands, MSP (on 32 points) hold a three-point lead to second placed OBU (29) at the top of the standings, with Wainuiomata three back on 26.
Below these leading three there's realistically five teams chasing one or perhaps two Hardham spots over the next three weeks. Norths (24), Johnsonville (23), Poneke (21), Avalon (21) and HOBM (20) can all count themselves still in the hunt.
As well as hoping for the leading trio of clubs stumbling over the remaining three rounds, another determining factor on which of these chasing teams progress to the Hardham Cup is the fate of the OBU, Poneke and Norths first XVs in the Swindale Shield. Should OBU's, Poneke's or Norths' top sides be relegated to the Hardham Cup their second XVs won't be able to go up and potentially a side that finishes seventh in the Harper Lock Shield could progress to the Hardham Cup.
With these permutations in mind, this round of Harper Lock Shield matches shapes as a cracker for the fair-weather fan.
Leaders MSP will become the first side to officially qualify for the Hardham Cup round should they beat Avalon at Evans Bay at 12.30pm. But with everything to play for themselves, Avalon will be hungry to bounce back from their loss to rivals Johnsonville last Saturday and launch themselves into Hardham Cup contention.
With both OBU and Poneke sweating on the fortunes of their top teams, neither will take their eyes off a potential Hardham Cup berth when they meet at Nairnville Park at 12.30pm. For Poneke, this match is probably a much win.
Norths can leapfrog third placed Wainuiomata on the points table if they win at Porirua Park in their match at 12.30pm, while Johnsonville will also be hoping for a Norths win and they will overtake Wainuiomata too if they overcome ninth placed Paremata-Plimmerton at Helston Park at 2.15pm.
In the other two Senior 1 matches this weekend, HOBM will be searching for a bonus point victory over 11th placed Ories at the Hutt Rec at 12.30pm to remain in contention for the Hardham Cup and 10th and 12th placed Tawa square off at the Petone Rec at 12.30pm.
National Mutual Cup
The leading two sides at the end of the National Mutual Cup earn promotion to the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup in the second round, and if current frontrunners Wellington and Upper Hutt both win again this Saturday it seems this pair could have both these spots sewn up.
Leaders Wellington (39 points) already have one hand on the National Mutual Cup and probably won't be caught by second placed Upper Hutt (34) if they win their ninth straight match as expected against winless Petone.
The top versus bottom clash at the Petone Rec at 12.30pm also has an interclub trophy on the line, with Wellington and Petone playing for the Air New Zealand Trophy. Wellington are the current holders having won 51-15 last year.
Upper Hutt will be hoping for a bonus point win over seventh placed MSP (17) at Kilbirnie Park at 12.30pm and for a Petone upset over Wellington to join the Axemen at the top of the table.
Of the challengers, only third placed Poneke (29 points) can still challenge for a spot in the second round Senior 1 competition, but first must overcome fourth equal OBU (24) on artificial at Te Whaea at 12.30pm. But like their current Senior 1 team, Poneke's third fifteen could also be left sweating on the fortunes of their top side in the Swindale Shield.
In other 12.30pm National Mutual Cup matches on Saturday, Norths (24) host Avalon (20) at Porirua Park, HOBM (17) host Ories (12) and Wests and Stokes Valley (both on 11) meet at Ian Galloway Park.
Victoria Tavern Trophy
In round two matches of the Victoria Tavern Trophy, first round winners Wainuiomata and Northern United meet at William Jones Park at 11.30am.
Eketahuna will be aiming for a bonus point over Ories when they clash at Eketahuna Field from 11.30am and Old Boys University and Stokes Valley are gunning for their first wins of the second round when they square off at Martin Luckie Park at 11.30am.
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