First round champions could be found in each of Wellington club rugby's top three grades with a week to spare if the respective Swindale Shield, Harper Lock Shield and National Mutual Cup frontrunners win their penultimate round games this weekend and other results work in their favour.
In the Premier Swindale Shield, leaders Hutt Old Boys Marist will win the first round title on Saturday if they beat Rimutaka and second placed Marist St Pat's lose to Tawa.
Current form suggests that HOBM will meet Rimutaka's challenge and win their game in this top versus bottom encounter at Old Timers' Day at Maoribank Park. But only the most parochial of MSP supporters will confidently be chalking up an away win for their team over Tawa who have won three on the trot and smoked Petone by 30 points last weekend.
It could be more clear-cut in the Senior 1 and Senior 2 grades.
With a six-point lead to second placed Old Boys-University, leaders Marist St. Pat's just need to win their Harper Lock Shield match with or without a bonus point against bottom placed Tawa in the curtain-raiser at Lyndhurst Park.
Similarly, the Wellington Axemen will wrap up the National Mutual Cup by beating eighth placed MSP with a bonus point at home at Hataitai Park at 3.00pm. With a five-point lead to second placed Upper Hutt, whom they beat earlier in the round-robin, Wellington can lose to MSP but still clinch the title this week if Upper Hutt also lose to third placed Poneke at Kilbirnie Park at 1.15pm.
All three trophy presentations will made next week after round 11.
Meanwhile, the race for promotion-relegation in both the Swindale Shield and Harper Lock Shield competitions remains enthralling with two rounds to play.
In particular, the fortunes of Poneke and Petone are yet to be decided. Poneke's top team last played Hardham Cup in 1997 where they eventually won the trophy 16-15 over Ories in the final.? They finished 10th in the Swindale Shield. Petone's top team last played in the Hardham Cup in 1996, beating Johnsonville 80-3 in the final. They finished ninth in the Swindale Shield.
In the Swindale Shield, only the current top four clubs - HOBM (on 36 points), MSP (34), Wainuiomata (29) and Upper Hutt (29) - are officially safely through to the Jubilee Cup which starts in a fortnight. Realistically fifth placed Ories (27) are also through, but mathematically they're not. They meet current ninth placed Petone (18) and 11th placed Poneke (14) in their last two matches and they could lose both and be leapfrogged by Petone.
Only bottom placed Rimutaka are officially Hardham Cup bound at this stage, so including Ories this leaves seven teams fighting for the four spots still up for grabs in the Jubilee Cup in the second round with two rounds to play. These teams are: Ories, OBU, Tawa, Norths, Petone, Wests and Poneke.
In key games in round 10 involving these contenders, the spotlight will be on the Polo Ground where Ories host Petone and on the Hawkins Basin Reserve where OBU host Norths.
The match at the Polo ground has big ramifications for both clubs. If Ories beat Petone it will officially put them into the Jubilee Cup while at the same time it could send Petone down to as low as 11th and they'd have a massive battle in the final week to avoid the drop to the Hardham Cup for the first time in many seasons for the last round.
Both Ories and ninth placed Petone (18) are coming off losses, Ories going down to leaders HOBM 24-32 and Petone losing to Tawa 13-43. The previous week saw Ories beat Norths 22-16 and Petone draw with OBU 18-18.
The Jim Brown Memorial Trophy is also on the line between Ories and Petone. This was donated by Jim's employer Dominion Breweries shortly after his death from cancer in 2004. Jim gave loyal service to his club through his playing days and he represented Wellington from 1965 to 1974. Ories are the current holders having beaten Petone 20-11 in this corresponding clash last year and Jubilee Cup champions Ories also won their return clash 49-23.
The encounter at the Basin between sixth placed OBU (21 points) and eighth placed Norths (19)could also have season defining ramifications for both clubs who will be desperate to win to make the Jubilee Cup.
Victory for either would likely be enough to see them make the top eight, especially if ninth placed Petone lose to Ories and seventh placed Tawa (20) miss out to MSP. Looking ahead to the last round OBU will have by far the toughest last match to play against Upper Hutt, while Norths meet Rimutaka and if it came down to them needing a bonus point win at the end to progress they'd be favoured to achieve it.
OBU head into this match having only lost three of their nine matches to date, with two draws pulling them back into the pack, while Norths have won three and lost six. Norths are scoring on average a try a game more than OBU, but OBU are conceding a try fewer per match than Norths are.
While the scrap to make the top eight is all new territory for two-time defending champions Norths, OBU are past masters at it. Last year they missed out on the top eight when they lost to MSP at home in their last match after leading at halftime.
If recent matches between the two sides are anything to go by, OBU will need to be on their game to stay with Norths. The last five matches between these sides have seen wins to Norths by 51-33, 54-7, 57-11, 45-0 and 55-14.
The situation is more clear-cut for Poneke, who realistically must win this weekend against fourth placed Upper Hutt at home at Kilbirnie Park to stay alive for the Jubilee Cup. If they lose they could well still be in the hunt to finish eighth next week but would probably find themselves needing to smash Ories and for other results to go their way such as Rimutaka beating Norths.
Defeat for Poneke and a first trip to the Hardham Cup in 16 years for their top side will also have a trickle down affect for their Senior 1 and Senior 2 sides who are both still in contention to make the next two higher grades for the second round. But, with one club team per competition representation, Poneke's second XV will have to stay down in Senior 1 and their third XV down in Senior 2 if they finish in the top four and top two respectively in their current competitions.
Poneke and Upper Hutt also contest the Alby Makeham Memorial Trophy, named after the legendary 1950s halfback. Alby "kick it again" Makeham. He was the halfback for Poneke between 1951-59 and a Wellington representative between 1954-59. He played for Upper Hutt between1960-62. After his playing days he mentored young Poneke halfbacks, including future All Black, Ofisa Tonu'u and when he died both clubs set up a trophy in his honour. His mother "Ma" Makeham was a passionate Poneke follower and was a life member between 1975-96.
Poneke are the current holders, having won this corresponding clash last year 20-19 - courtesy of a match winning penalty on fulltime. Poneke also won 40-26 in 2010, 34-22 in 2009, 14-10 in 2008, 69-7 in 2007 and 29-11 in 2006.. So Upper Hutt's last win was seven years ago in 2005, 22-14.
It's Old Timers' Day at Wainuiomata, where the home club could make history by sending its top two teams into the Jubilee and Hardham Cup grades for the second round.
In the main Swindale Shield game, Wainuiomata host the Wests Roosters, with the visitors having everything to play for. With Wainuiomata safely through to the Jubilee Cup, it'll all be about momentum for them in their last home game of the first round. But for ninth placed Wests (15 points), they need a win to keep their top eight hopes alive into the last round when they play Tawa.
In the early Harper Lock Shield encounter at William Jones Park, fifth equal placed Wainuiomata (26 points) and fourth placed Johnsonville (28) do battle in a match that will put the winner in a strong position to qualify for the Hardham Cup heading into the last round the following Saturday.
With second placed OBU (31) and third placed Norths (29) also clashing this week at Nairnville Park at 1.15pm, Johnsonville are guaranteed to climb up one to third if they beat Wainuiomata and Wainuiomata are guaranteed to climb up one to at least fourth equal if they beat Johnsonville.
Both are coming off contrasting results over the last few weeks, with Johnsonville's fortunes on an upward trajectory and Wainuiomata's tapering off. Johnsonville have won their past two matches and three of their past four, while Wainuiomata have lost their past three encounters after previously winning five of their first six.
Statistically, these two teams are very even. Johnsonville have scored 207 points and conceded 180 and Wainuiomata have scored 201 and conceded 195.
It's also Old Timers' Day at Paremata-Plimmerton who host Poneke. Ninth placed Paremata-Plimmerton (17) are already confirmed as Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup starters for the second round, while fifth equal Poneke (26) are still very much in contention to make the top four and book a place in the Hardham Cup - pending the fortunes of their top team.
Elsewhere in the Harper Lock Shield, 11th placed Ories host eighth placed Petone in the undercard at the Polo Ground.
The top two finishing teams in the current Senior 2 National Mutual Cup earn promotion to the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup for the second round. Leaders and expected winners Wellington are through, and are likely to be joined by Upper Hutt, with the only team in the hunt being Poneke - again pending the fortunes of their Swindale Shield team.
The big clash of this round sees Poneke (on 34 points) and Upper Hutt (39) clash in the early game at Kilbirnie Park, but, like their second XV playing in the Harper Lock Shield above them, even if Poneke beats Upper Hutt with a bonus point and draw level with them they won't progress unless their first club stays up in the Jubilee Cup.
In other National Mutual Cup round 10 matches, fourth and fifth Norths (29) and OBU (25) clash at Nairnville Park, sixth placed HOBM play ninth placed Stokes Valley at Delany Park, seventh placed Avalon host 11th placed Wests at Fraser Park and 10th placed Ories meet 12th placed Petone at the Polo Ground.
In other competitions, the Premier Women's Victoria Tavern Trophy takes a breather for a week, while the second round set of Premier 1 college first XV games promises to be electric.
The match of the round is at Welliington College between the home side and Rongotai College at 2.30pm. This match is also live on Sky Sport's Rugby Channel, which fans can MySky or catch a replay of at a later date because they will be watching club rugby live at the same time.
St Pat's Town meets Scots College at Evans Bay Park at 2.30pm, St Pat's Silverstream welcomes St Bernard's at 2.30pm and HIBS and Aotea College square off at HIBS at 2.30pm.
?