Winter rugby set to be a factor this weekend as first round winners press playoff claims

Running away with it - a second Jubilee Cup win this Saturday for Petone against fellow first round winners HOBM will put them in the box seat to make the semi-finals at the end of July.

The second week of the Jubilee and Hardham Cups has the prospect of being a true test of mid-winter rugby, with inclement weather so far this week and more forecast before the weekend. For the sides that were victorious last weekend this Saturday represents a chance to take a significant step towards the semi-finals, while those that lost find themselves on the back foot already with much work to do. Either way, it's shaping up as another uncompromising week of Wellington club rugby.

Jubilee Cup

The first week of the Jubilee Cup produced an interesting set of results, with all four winners finishing lower on the Swindale table than the sides they beat last Saturday.

One issue that now faces Marist St Pat's, Tawa, Old Boys-University and the Upper Hutt Rams is that not since 1997, when MSP lost to the-then named Harlequins (now OBU) by 18 points to 30, has a side that lost its Jubilee Cup opener gone on to lift the trophy.

Even making the semi-finals after a first-up loss is a tough ask; over the past 10 years only on 11 occasions - roughly one per year - has a side made that stage of the competition after dropping their first game and no side has rebounded from losing their first two matches to make the last four, so history says this weekend's match is a must win for the four aforementioned sides. Only four times (three by Poneke) in that span has a first up loser even hosted a home semi-final.

Conversely, sides that open their campaign with a win have gone on to qualify 66% of the time across that period. That rate improves to 84% for teams that win again the second weekend, with Tawa (in both 2004 and 2007) and MSP (2010) the sides that started two-from-two yet missed semi-final places.

Defending champions Tawa find themselves on the bottom looking up at everyone else after being overrun by Oriental-Rongotai at home, though in fairness to the Lyndhurst club few sides can simply plug-in a number of Super Rugby players and the IRB World Sevens Rookie of the Year like Ories can when they are available. Tawa's task this week is the trek to William Jones Park to face Wainuiomata, with a four game losing run to end and a lengthening injury list to deal with. Wainuiomata's win over the Rams was the first time since 2011 they have won their Jubilee Cup opener, and they showed few side-effects from resting players in their last Swindale match. One unknown will be the William Jones pitch itself which was badly cut up after the last match played there a month ago and has had a large amount of remedial work done on it since then. When the two sides met in the second round of the Swindale Shield Tawa prevailed 46-13, but much has changed since then.

After having the game safely won after 25 minutes last weekend, Ories return home to the Polo Ground to take on OBU. The two sides have already played there once this year, after OBU requested that their Swindale encounter be moved from the originally scheduled Ian Galloway Park; Ories won that match by 22-17. Much interest will be focused on the make-up of the home team and how many of their professionally-contracted players are available, but even without them they are still dangerous enough. After a nomadic Swindale campaign playing matches away from their home field is second-nature to the Goats, but the bonus point from their loss at the Basin Reserve to HOBM will be poor solace and they will be desperate for a win Saturday. ?

After being out of commission so far this season rugby returns to Evans Bay Park with MSP facing the Upper Hutt Rams. MSP were somewhat sluggish against Petone, perhaps a legacy of the effort they put in against Tawa to lift the Swindale Shield the week before and the fact that coach Ross Bond pulled the team into a huddle on the pitch after full time spoke volumes. The Rams came out on the wrong side of an error-prone encounter with Wainuiomata at home and will aim to reverse the 36-21 scoreline to MSP from the sides Swindale match-up on a hard and dusty Maidstone Park in early April. The winner of this one will keep themselves in the semi-final picture, while the loser will have to go down a road not travelled in a long time to make that same stage.

The fourth contest is at the Hutt Rec between neighbours Hutt Old Boys Marist and Petone in the only game between sides that won last weekend. The Eagles' 20-point burst in the second half was enough to see them prevail against OBU, while the Villagers ended their long Jubilee Cup losing streak against MSP. The last match between the two sides was the stirring McBain Shield match on Derby Day, won by Petone 20-19, and few will expect anything other than another hard-fought contest this time around.

All Jubilee Cup matches are 3.00 pm kick-offs

Hardham Cup

Another talking point last weekend were the results in the Hardham Cup, with the biggest shock being OBU's win over Premier side Norths, while Avalon tipped over Johnsonville as well.

Over the past five years the first-round winners have qualified at the same two-thirds clip as the Jubilee Cup, though there have been four instances of teams losing both their first two games, yet making the semis (Wainuiomata 2009, Avalon 2010, both Tawa & Rimutaka 2011); while just once (Poneke B 2011) has a team missed out after starting with two wins.

The sole early game is at Kilbirnie Park, where MSP takes on Avalon. The Scarlets second-stringers were well-beaten by Poneke on the same ground last weekend, and will be looking to reverse the 27-11 result that saw Avalon claim the Harper Lock Shield three weeks ago. Avalon will be buoyed after impressively beating Swindale side Johnsonville on their Old Timers Day and will be looking to run their record to 12 wins from 13 starts.

At Helston Park Johnsonville take on OBU at 3.00 pm, with the two sides current fortunes very different. The Goats win over Norths marked them as genuine contenders, while the doggedness that characterised the home side's performances through most of the Swindale Shield has seemingly deserted them with injuries not helping either. That win over Ories and last-minute loss to Tawa in successive weeks must seem so long ago.? ??

The remaining two games are both out in Porirua, also with 3pm kickoffs. At Porirua Park there is the second rematch this season of last year's Hardham Cup final with Norths taking on Wellington. The home side will be looking for redemption in front of the faithful after their loss to OBU, while the Axemen will be looking to add to Norths misery and take their second win of this campaign. Norths won the Swindale encounter at Hataitai by 29-20.

Just up the road Paremata-Plimmerton play their first home Hardham Cup game in over a quarter-century at Ngatitoa Domain. They gave a good account of themselves against the Axemen, but face a stern test this time out with Poneke this weekend. The Kilbirnie side ran up a half-century against MSP and will be the favourites in this one, but who knows what the occasion will bring out in the home side.

Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup

Four of the five first-round winners have away assignments this weekend. Tawa take on Wainuiomata at William Jones at 1.00 pm, with 1.15 pm kickoffs for Poneke at the Polo Ground against Ories, and Petone at the Hutt Rec against HOBM in the only match-up of first-game winners. Norths host the Wellington Axemen at Porirua Park at the same time, with both sides looking for their first wins of this campaign. The final match of the round is at 3.00 pm at Ian Galloway Park, where the Wests Roosters host the Upper Hutt Rams.

Under 85kg Division 1 JC Bowl

The last first-round title remaining will be decided on Saturday when the MSP Blues and Tawa Titans clash at the Evans Bay Artificial at 1.30 pm. Though both sides are unbeaten, the Blues are in the box seat with a four-point lead having won all their games with bonus points, meaning the Titans need to win with a bonus point while denying their opposition anything to win the title outright. One sign of how dominant these two sides have been in the lightweight grade is that over the past last season and a half their only losses have been to each other.

In the remaining matches Wellington takes on the OBU Bunnies at Hataitai at 1.15 pm, the MSP Reds and Upper Hutt Rams are at Martin Luckie Park 3 at 3.00 pm and at 3.00 pm the Poneke Cavs and OBU Spartans meet at Kilbirnie with Eastbourne hosting Stokes Valley at HW Shortt.

Other grades

The four Senior 2 HD Morgan Cup matches have Johnsonville playing host to OBU in the early game at Helston, while MSP take on Avalon at Martin Luckie at the same time. There are 3.00 pm kick-offs for HOBM and Petone at the Hutt Rec and Norths and the Upper Hutt Rams at Porirua Park. Stokes Valley - who were the only side to record a bonus-point win last weekend - have the bye.

The second round of the Colts Division 1 John Kelly Cup is started with OBU Black taking on HOBM at Te Whaea at 1pm. At 1.15pm the Goats' Green side faces Norths at Porirua Park and Oriental-Rongotai play Petone at the Polo Ground, while the sole 3.00 pm kick-off is at Hataitai with Wellington up against MSP.

The College Premier 1 round started on Wednesday when St Pats Silverstream defeated Wellington College 24-12 in the annual traditional clash, a result that pushes Silverstream clear at the top and drops College to a lowly 1-3 record. In the remaining three matches, unbeaten Hutt International visits Rongotai College, Scots College hosts St Bernard's, and bottom-side Naenae College hosts St Pat's Town, with all 3 matches at 2.30 pm.

The five Premier 2 matches are highlighted by a top-of-the table clash in Masterton between Wairarapa College and Porirua College. Elsewhere Tawa College hosts the Wellington College 2nds, Hutt Valley HS do likewise for Kapiti College and Upper Hutt College visits Silverstream's 2nds, while winless sides Paraparaumu and Aotea clash up the coast. All five of these games are 1.00 pm kick-offs.