Tawa second five-eighth Ezra Fermanis takes on his opposite Isaia Petelo in last week's one-point win over MSP. Tomorrow, Tawa travel to play unbeaten leaders Hutt Old Boys Marist in one of four crucial Jubilee Cup matches.
Updated: If anything, last Saturday's results compressed the Jubilee Cup table and all eight sides could yet still make the semi-finals, making this weekend's games a round where the pressure will well and truly be on. The Hardham Cup is somewhat clearer cut, where the four semi-finalists could all be confirmed tomorrow.
This week we take a look at the two Premier competitions and what lies in front of them over the next two weekends in their bid to make the semi-finals.
As a reminder; in the event of a tie on competition points for any place in the top four the first tie-breaker is the result of the round-robin match, with points-difference used only if that match was drawn. If three or more are tied then a mini-table method is used.
Hutt Old Boys Marist
Currently: First on 21 points
Remaining games: Tawa (H), Wainuiomata (A)
The Eagles are the only side to have secured a semi-finals berth so far, sitting 10 points ahead of fifth place but having accounted for two of those sides already; and a solitary point on home turf at the Nest on Saturday against Tawa will secure a home semi. They will be looking to keep their 100% record intact when they take on the Lyndhurst club; with the twin motivations of keeping momentum and looking to avenge the 14-50 thumping they received on the opening day of the season.?
Wainuiomata
Currently: Second on 17 points
Remaining games: MSP (A), HOBM (H)
After 77 minutes of last Saturday's game Wainuiomata also looked set to have secured a semi-final place, but following the concession of two late tries to Petone those hopes were dashed. They will still, at worst, be second come tomorrow night, but whether they are semi-final bound or in the clutches of the chasing pack will depend on how well they've exorcised the demons, especially when facing an MSP side that will themselves be desperate to stay in the semi-finals picture. They hold tiebreakers over OBU, Ories and the Rams, while if they are tied with Tawa points-difference will be used because of their draw.
Old Boys-University
Currently: Third equal on 11 points
Remaining games: Petone (H), MSP (A)
Like Wainuiomata, the Goats will have to deal with losing from a fairly handy position last weekend and take on a Petone side that will be on a massive high after their own comeback. They, like the other sides around them, will know that two wins will probably secure them a place, and depending on how Wainuiomata fare it that could still be a home semi. They hold tiebreakers over Ories and Tawa.
Tawa
Currently: Third equal on 11 points
Remaining games: HOBM (A), Upper Hutt Rams (A)
The defending champions' win over MSP combined with results elsewhere put them back in the thick of the action after that heavy first-up defeat against a star-laden Ories side; and there is no denying that they look a different-side when talismanic captain Taniela Koroi is on the park. In contrast to their free-scoring at the start of the season, Tawa have scored fewer points than anyone else in the Jubilee Cup so far; and are the only side to play their last two games away from home, starting with tomorrow's trip to the Hutt Rec. One thing on their side is that they did win their last game there, last year's final. As well as over MSP, they hold the tiebreaker over Petone.
Upper Hutt Rams
Currently: Third equal on 11 points
Remaining games: Ories (A), Tawa (H)
As alluded to in this space previously, the Rams are battling history as no side in the past 10 years has lost their opening three round-robin games and made the semis. Yet if the new holders of the Bill Brien Challenge Cup can win their last two matches there is every chance they will change that and reach the semi-finals in their first season. They will have to do it without Liam Berry, who has left for a contract in France. Their tiebreakers are over Petone and OBU.
Marist St Pat's
Currently: Sixth equal on 10 points
Remaining games: Wainuiomata (H), OBU (H)
The Swindale Shield winners dropped out of the top four, after losing to Tawa, but the bonus point earned with Peter Sciascia's late try could yet prove crucial. MSP also have the benefit of two games at the friendly confines of Evans Bay to conclude the round-robin, where Fa'atonu Fili's intimate knowledge of conditions will be vital to their chances. Their tiebreakers are over Upper Hutt and Ories.
Petone
Currently: Sixth equal on 10 points
Remaining games: OBU (A), Ories (H)
Eugene Smith's try and Carne Green's subsequent conversion did more than cap their comeback against Wainuiomata; it also kept them alive in the Jubilee Cup race. Looking to make the Jubilee Cup semi's for the first time since 2010, they must firstly win against OBU at the Basin, otherwise their final match against Ories may be a dead rubber.? They hold tiebreakers over MSP and Wainuiomata.
Oriental-Rongotai
Currently: Eighth on 7 points
Remaining games: Upper Hutt Rams (H), Petone (A)
The 2011 champions and runners-up the past two seasons are in something of a deep hole, but are not out of contention. Realistically though they need to win both their remaining matches with bonus points, and hope almost every other result falls their way. Win this week and they could also have their Super Rugby stars back in the last round against Petone, with the Hurricanes and Blues both likely to miss out on the professional rugby competition playoffs.
All four Jubilee Cup matches kick-off at 3.00 pm.
Norths
Currently: First on 21 points
Remaining games: Johnsonville (H), Pare-Plim (A)
Having taken over top spot by beating Poneke Norths can secure a home semi should they beat Johnsonville this weekend, and with Api Naikatini, Jackson Garden-Bachop and Aukuso Tuitama having returned to the team (the latter two after U20 JWC duty) they will be favoured to do that ahead of next week's local derby at Ngatitoa.
Poneke
Currently: Second on 19 points
Remaining games: OBU (A), Avalon (H)
Despite dropping to second after suffering their first loss of their Hardham Cup campaign Poneke will secure a place in the semis with a win against the already eliminated OBU B's, or if Johnsonville loses. The only way they can secure a home semi-final tomorrow is if they win with a bonus point and Avalon fails to beat Paremata-Plimmerton.
Wellington
Currently: Third on 15 points
Remaining games: MSP (A), Johnsonville (A)
The Axemen concluded their slate of home fixtures with their win over Avalon, and the only way they will be back at Hataitai for a semi-final is if Poneke stumbles down the stretch. They will secure a semi-finals place with a win tomorrow over bottom-side MSP and if Johnsonville loses. Any other outcome will see them face a virtual quarter-final match at Helston next weekend, though if the finished tied with Avalon on points they will be seeded higher owing to their win last Saturday.
Avalon
Currently: Fourth on 15 points
Remaining games: Paremata-Plimmerton (H), Poneke (A)
Although they've slipped to fourth after successive losses to Swindale sides, Avalon can also secure a semi-finals place should they win and Johnsonville loses. Otherwise they will potentially face a tough ask against Poneke at Kilbirnie next week, though they do hold the head-to-head should they finish tied with Johnsonville owing to their win over the Hawks earlier on.
Johnsonville
Currently: Fifth on 13 points
Remaining games: Norths (A), Wellington (H)
The task for the Helston side is this; win this weekend and they will survive another week, lose and they will be sweating on an upset somewhere else to keep their hopes alive. With this week's game a trip to Porirua Park, victory will be a big ask against a Norths side that looks to be in better form than when they squeaked past Johnsonville 16-15 in the Swindale encounter.
Paremata-Plimmerton
Currently: Sixth on 8 points
Remaining games: Avalon (A), Norths (H)
Last week's win over OBU was Paremata-Plimmerton's first win at Premier level, and their first in the top level competitions since the late 80's. Their chances of making the semi-finals rest on them scoring a pair of upset wins and other results going their way, but that should not detract from what has been a historic season for them.
Of the two B sides in the competition, OBU were eliminated last week while MSP have an extreme mathematical chance only.
The MSP v Wellington and OBU v Poneke games are both 1.15 pm kick-offs at Evans Bay and Ian Galloway respectively, while Norths v Johnsonville and Avalon v Pare-Plim are at 3.00 pm.
It's also the penultimate week of the Colts Division 1 round-robin as they too build towards Finals Day. Three sides are already confirmed as semi-finalists; OBU Green, Norths, and HOBM. Petone will join them if they take at least two competition points from their clash with Norths on the Petone Rec at 3.00 pm, or if Wellington doesn't beat Oriental-Rongotai when they meet at Hataitai at 1.15 pm. The other games have HOBM hosting MSP at the Hutt Rec also at 1.15 pm, while the two OBU sides, Green and Black, are scheduled to play at Te Whaea at 1.00 pm.
In this weeks Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup matches mid-season promotees and unbeaten leaders Poneke take on Wainuiomata at 3.00 pm at Kilbirnie, while fellow promotees Wellington host Petone at Hataitai at the same time.
In the three 1.15 pm matches second-placed HOBM are at home to Tawa, the fourth-placed Upper Hutt Rams make the trip to cellar-dwellars Ories, and bottom-three sides Norths and Wests clash at Porirua.
The four HD Morgan Senior 2 matches have Avalon at home against the Upper Hutt Rams in the early game at Fraser Park. The remaining games are at 3.00 pm with leaders HOBM taking on Stokes Valley at the Hutt Rec, Norths against Johnsonville at Porirua, and OBU against Petone at Ian Galloway Park. MSP have the bye.
The Women's Victoria Tavern Trophy games all revert to Saturday morning kickoffs. Leaders Norths visit Stokes Valley at Delaney Park, Oriental-Rongotai are at home to Wainuiomata, Old Boys-University take on Poneke at Prince of Wales, and Tawa visits Avalon.
The four Under 85kg Paul Potiki Shield matches are all at 3.00 pm, with three teams remaining unbeaten so far and all away from home tomorrow. The Tawa Titans head to Kilbirnie to face the Poneke Cavs, the MSP Blues travel to HW Shortt to play Eastbourne, and Waikanae make the trip down the coast to Te Whaea where the OBU Spartans await. The fourth match is between winless sides Avalon and the OBU Bunnies at Fraser Park, while the Upper Hutt Rams are drawn to play their bye week match against the Wests Roosters at the Ian Galloway cage.
There is no College rugby this week or next due to the school holidays.