Aisle Be Back: Hurricanes v Sharks

Lethargic, flat, and a bit perplexed. That was me on Sunday morning

And it’s pretty much how the Canes – as a unit - appeared against the Sharks. Now we've found out that a number of players broke curfew in the buildup.

What happened, who was involved, and the consequences will play out in the next few days.

But at first blush, it's really disappointing to hear.

The contrast was that a few hours earlier, the other finalists from last year, the Highlanders, were demonstrating the very qualities that we’re going to need.

A couple of weeks ago they were teetering on dropping right off the pace, but have produced two great performances. Defence was at the heart of both, but it was also the smart dismantling of the misfiring Chiefs that impressed so much.

So now they’ve got the chance to take down the pace-setting Crusaders. That’s three tough matches in a row but you wouldn’t bet against them right now.

The Canes on the other hand should be angry as hell with themselves. The Sharks were never going to be anything other than very tough on home turf, but it’s the way that we just largely didn’t front up that will be hurting.

Admirable bits of their game to date, such as the scrum, and lineout, suddenly were anything but.

I’m backing them of course to take out that frustration on the Reds this Saturday. A loss is unthinkable, and a win essential.

And we need another cracking crowd to turn out. Get out there and help put some fire in their bellies.

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Well, everyone’s got five or six games to go, so that’s pretty much two thirds of the comp gone – it’s just the fast-approaching international window that makes it look like ages remain.

To celebrate, I’ve done some calculations on the run-in for the Kiwi teams. This features some really dodgy statistical analysis on the back of an envelope.

So, bear with me. If you use the current table positions (yes, I know the conference systems makes the rankings RUBBISH!) and work out who plays who, and are happy to not factor in home advantage as an advantage (I mean the grass is green everywhere), then here’s what you find.

CRUSADERS – honestly, with six games to go, three of them at home, and only one overseas at the future new Chiefs home ground of Suva (I kid you not), how can these guys not top the table. The average ranking of the teams they’ll play is 8.5 (the lower that number, the tougher the remaining opposition).

HIGHLANDERS – Average ranking 9, so theoretically an easier run-in. But while they have two home games, and 1 away in NZ, there’s a road trip to the Kings in South Africa and the Jaguares in Buenos Aires. They're better than those sides obviously, but it won’t be simple to survive that travel load and keep winning. This team though won’t lie down.

CHIEFS – Average ranking 8.8. Just the one home match, 1 away in NZ and the rest overseas – albeit very nearby overseas. They’ve squeaked through some close ones until the Highlanders finally nailed them, so another team that is feeling the heat.

HURRICANES – Average ranking 8.6. 3 home games, including a beauty soon against the Landers, a quick shopping trip to Sydney, and the closer against the Crusaders away. Could be worse!

BLUES – I couldn’t be bothered. You’ll welcome to lay a bet at the TAB if you really think they can sneak in.

So all that shows is that no-one’s got a soft run in (so advantage Crusaders). The Canes really do have to turn the stadium into a fortress from here on in, because that’s one edge we have.

And if we remain slugging it out for the slots between 5 and 8, which is the reality, just where do you actually want to finish. In a perverse playoffs setup, it’s not at all clear.

Kev has followed the Hurricanes since they began. He has a season pass. Every year he predicts the Canes will win Super Rugby. He refuses to be called a long-suffering fan.

Hurricanes v Reds, this Saturday at Westpac Stadium, kick-off 7.35pm.