Aisle be back: Super Rugby semi-finals

Above: Dane Coles, Beuaden Barrett, Nehe Milner-Scudder and TJ Perenara are all in the starting XV to play the Lions in their semi-final, kick-off at 12.30am Sunday NZT. 

I've got a feeling it could be desperately close on Saturday morning.

Mainly because I'm not buying three common strands of thinking.

The first is that the Lions haven't played a New Zealand side this season. Sure, they may not be battle-hardened, but they sure as heck won't be as battle-worn. And the Canes won't have any experience of the 2017 Lions to draw on.

And anyway this is sudden-death footy. The home side will be switched on.

The second is that the Canes put 50 points on the Lions at Ellis Park last season. Well that was last season, in a regular season game. It's like assessing the Canes by the 50 points they shipped in their 2016 season opener. Not relevant to a play-off match.

Finally, there's the idea that the Canes will prosper in fine weather on a hard track. Yes they will, but so will the Lions.

And remember this is Ellis Park, not Ellis in Wonderland. If the Canes enjoyed the home advantage in 2016, this time the boot's on the other foot. If full, and why wouldn't it be, it remains a hostile place - and one still at altitude last time I checked.

So, we've seen enough All Blacks test successes in Africa to distil what the Canes will need to do.

Start fast or if not fast, at least well.

Score points regularly (take the 3).

Be ready for the blitz bokke - that bit where a South African team  flicks the switch and can run in a brace or more of tries in short order.

Follow the skipper - Dane Coles' nous and experience under pressure  could well be the difference.

And last but not least, win or have parity up front.

So simple. I don't know why anyone would be worried.

++++++

There's apparently another game on this weekend.

So I asked my watercooler guy whether he was confident about his Saders. He shook his head. Because Glen Jackson is the ref. He who used to play for Waikato.

Which is clearly a sign of how shaken their fans were, not to say utterly seething, about that game at the Cake Tin. Although it doesn't have any logic.

Still, even if you buy that conspiracy theory - and I don't - you'd have to give the edge to the Crusaders.

They sure did the job on the poor Highlanders. I know the Dunedin roof is a wonderful asset, but you have to think it has the occasional downside when you end up in shocking elements you don't play in very often.

++++++

Hurricanes captain Dane Coles will start at hooker in Sunday’s Investec Super Rugby semi-final against the Lions in what will be his 100th appearance for the club.
 
The Wellington hooker’s return is one of two changes to the Hurricanes starting side with the competition’s leading try scorer Vince Aso reclaiming his place at centre in a reshuffled backline.
 
Coles will become the eleventh player to achieve 100 caps for the Hurricanes after Andrew Hore, Cory Jane, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Rodney So'oialo, Jeremy Thrush, Neemia Tialata, Tana Umaga, Victor Vito and Julian Savea.
 
It will be Coles’ first start since he suffered a concussion against the Highlanders in round four and comes a week after his successful return via the bench against the Brumbies in Canberra.
 
Coles, who made his Hurricanes debut against the Waratahs in Wellington in 2009, replaces Ricky Riccitelli in an otherwise unchanged forward pack.

Fourteen of the Hurricanes match day 23 on Sunday took part in last year’s final.

Lifelong All Blacks supporter Kev has followed the Hurricanes since they began. Last year his faith in them was rewarded when they won the title – can they do it again?