Crunch weekend for semi-final hopefuls in round four

With the business end of the 2010 Wellington club rugby season fast approaching, both the Hardham and Jubilee Cups look set to go down to the wire over the final month of round-robin play.

Both competitions are finely balanced, with five of the eight Jubilee Cup teams all grouped together on the points table with two wins each from the opening three weeks and the leading teams all showing good form in the
Hardham Cup.

But for several teams across both competitions, this weekend's fourth round looms as a crunch one for their semi-final chances. One such clash in the Jubilee Cup will be at Evans Bay Park between 22-time winners
Petone and two-time defending champions Marist St. Pat's, a match that is one of gargantuan significance if you are a Petone supporter.

Petone, who are coming off a 20-34 loss to Northern United in which Norths scored five first half tries, realistically need to win this one or their 2010 semi-final chances could be over. Petone finished fifth in the Swindale Shield and will be desperate to go at least one better and reach the semi-finals in their 125th anniversary season. But if they meet defeat to MSP in this match they're likely to be finding themselves watching the playoff action from the grandstand.

Their loss to Norths was their second in three games, and recent Jubilee Cup history clearly shows their probable fate if are emerge this Saturday with a record of one win from four matches: of 28 semi-finalists in the seven seasons between 2003-2009 just one - Poneke in 2005 - has lost three of its first four round-robin games and still gone on to make the playoffs.

In 2005 Poneke had only beaten eventual sixth placed finisher Avalon in the opening four rounds to be languishing in sixth after the opening month. But wins over MSP, Upper Hutt and the Wests Roosters propelled them
into third and into a semi-final showdown with Petone the next week (which Petone won 19-18 in dramatic circumstances after hooker Eugene Smith won a tighthead scrum that set up a match winning try, converted from the
sideline by Earl Va'a).

Opposing Petone in this all-important clash are MSP, smarting after their shock last-gasp defeat to Poneke last weekend after leading 21-6 with five minutes to go. MSP will be just as anxious to return to winning ways after previously winning 10 straight in the Swindale Shield and opening fortnight of the Jubilee Cup.

Expect a huge battle up front between two of the best performed packs in the competition. Both are vastly experienced and proficient set-piece exponents, as Petone demonstrated last week in their gallant second half
comeback against Norths and MSP have shown through scoring several crisp tries recently started from scrums and lineouts.

Head to head, MSP have the upper hand in recent clashes between these teams having won their first round Swindale Shield encounter 16-10 to extend their record to four wins from their previous six clashes including a 15-8 win over them in last year's Jubilee Cup semi-final. Petone won 13-9 in their Jubilee Cup round-robin clash last year.

Old Boys-University are also in the gun this Saturday, with one win from three and needing to beat Upper Hutt to realistically have any chance of making the semi-finals. OBU return home to the Allied Nationwide Finance
Basin Reserve for this clash following two defeats on the road to MSP (3-16) and Ories (9-30) after previously beating joint leaders HOBM (27-22) in their cup opener. With matches to come against Petone (at home), Poneke
(away) and Norths (away) it hardly gets any easier for the students after this so they will be primed to beat Upper Hutt.

Upper Hutt may be winless, but they still present a dangerous threat to any side that comes up against them, as HOBM found last week when they were very nearly overtaken at the end in an Alby Mathewson-inpsired
comeback. Upper Hutt can only contemplate the semi-finals if they win with a bonus point this Saturday, while they will want to reverse the 12-45 defeat to them when they met six weeks ago in the Swindale Shield.

Norths and HOBM fought out a thriller when they met in the first round at Porirua Park, Norths only pulling clear late in the match for their 46-29 win. Their fourth round match at the same venue promises to be no
different between the joint early leaders on 11 points.

At the Polo Ground, Oriental-Rongotai and Poneke resume their eastern suburbs rivalry in another important clash for each of their semi-finals prospects, with the winner going a long way towards a playoff berth in a tightly bunched field.

Both are coming off third round victories, with Ories beating OBU with the help of super-sub Julian Savea who played a leading hand in their three second half tries that won the game, and Poneke snatching a thrilling late
win over MSP.

Ories are searching for their first Jubilee Cup semi-finals spot since 2002 and their supporters will well remember their fate at this juncture of the season last year when they slipped from first to fifth in one
weekend after losing to Norths 30-9 in round four.

They will also be eager to reverse their result from the earlier in the season that saw Poneke win 20-18 to claim back the Jim Grbich Memorial Shield in the opening weekend at Kilbirnie Park. Ories had won the previous two Swindale Shield clashes in 2008 and 2009 and also prevailed 20-16 in their 2008 Jubilee Cup clash. Poneke won 18-5 in the last round last year, their most recent encounter at the Polo Ground.

Hardham Cup

In this week's Hardham Cup action, the Wests Roosters have a great chance to extend their lead on their closest rivals if they can grab their fourth consecutive win and beat Avalon at Fraser Park at 3pm.

A bonus point win would probably be enough for the Roosters to qualify for the semi-finals ahead of clashe to come with current second placed Wainuiomata and third placed Tawa over the following fortnight.

At the same time its do or die for winless Avalon, who must win this match to maintain any hopes of reaching the playoffs, but more importantly keep the pressure on their rivals for their Premier promotion ambitions.

Avalon's closest rival at this point is Johnsonville, who replaced them in this year's Swindale Shield, but are far from guaranteed their spot in 2011 following their 18-24 loss to Northern United B last Saturday. Johnsonville will feel they need to overcome Marist St. Pat's B in their clash at Evans Bay Park this weekend which kicks off at 1.15pm.

The clash of the round in this week's Hardham Cup comes from Lyndhurst Park, where home side Tawa and Wainuiomata lock horns for the second, but possibly not the last, time this season. Previously they met in the opening weekend of the year at this same venue where Tawa won 39-23. Like the Roosters this week, victory for the winner would go a long way towards a top four finish.

Norths B have a real chance of making the semi-finals ahead of any one of the current Swindale Shield contenders. It's been at least several seasons since a B team made the top four, but if Norths can overcome Hutt Old Boys Marist B at Porirua Park in the early game at 1.15pm.

Norths are currently fourth, three points ahead of Johnsonville. If they defeat HOBM and Johnsonville loses to MSP's B team then this could become a reality. After this round, Norths play MSP (away), Wainuiomata (away)
and Tawa (home).

In other grades, the 10-team Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup is wide open after three rounds, with leaders Poneke the only unbeaten side and heading a group of five with two wins and a loss. In this week's fourth round, Poneke play one of these contenders, Ories, while two others meet. These are Petone and Paremata-Plimmerton and Stokes Valley and OBU. In other Senior 1 fixtures, Tawa searches for its second win against winless Norths as do Avalon and Rimutaka who meet in the other game.

In the 10-team Senior 2 HD Morgan Memorial Trophy, the three unbeaten teams MSP, Upper Hutt and Wellington can all extend their second round winning streaks to four this weekend. Leaders MSP meet seventh placed the
Wests Roosters, second placed Upper Hutt play sixth placed OBU and third placed Wellington tussle with ninth placed Wainuiomata. Elsewhere, Poneke and HOBM will be gunning for their third wins in four games when they
meet, while winless Petone and Paramata-Plimmerton vie to climb off the bottom of the table.

Top of the table Norths play third placed Old Boys-University at Nairnville Park in round six of the Victoria Tavern Premier Women's grade, second placed Eketahuna play fifth placed MSP at Martin Luckie Park, and
bottom placed Petone and Wainuiomata meet at Petone. Stokes Valley has the bye.

In the 8-team John E Kelly Memorial U21 competition, leaders Norths will be playing for their fourth consecutive victory when they meet fifth placed HOBM. Joint second placed Petone and MSP clash in a big game at
Prince of Wales Park, fourth placed OBU meet seventh placed Upper Hutt and sixth placed Wellington and winless Ories clash in the other game.