Much at stake in super Saturday of rugby in Wellington

Wellington sports fans will be spoiled for choice when they decide which Jubilee or Hardham game they go to this Saturday before heading to Westpac Stadium to watch several of their favourite players play their final games in Hurricanes colours. At least four of Wellington club rugby's favourite sons - Oriental Rongtotai's Ma'a Nonu, Petone's Neemia Tialata and Northern United's John Schwalger and Anthony Perenise - will be bringing down the curtain on their Hurricanes careers. Additionally, one of Wellington's rising stars Robbie Fruean, now playing for the Crusaders, will likely be lining up in the opposition backline.

But first, fans will be grabbing their raincoats and flying out the door in time for 2.15pm kick-offs around the region to watch any one of eight colossal round two Premier or Premier 2 club rugby games. With the stakes high for some clubs barely a fortnight into the second round, this weekend's rugby in Wellington could be one to remember.

The Jubilee Cup is all about momentum. If a team can win its early matches, then it's just a short sprint to the business end of the season when the pressure builds and the playoffs in the last weekend of July are in sight.

History overwhelmingly favours teams that start well in the second round - and the statistics back this up.

Looking at recent patterns, in each of the past 13 Jubilee Cups between 1998-2010 the eventual champion (or in 2008 co-champions) won its first round match. Additionally, In the previous ten straight Jubilee Cups between 2001-2010, no team has lost its first two matches and gone on to reach the final.

This means that for last week's first round vanquished, Hutt Old Boys Marist, Petone, Upper Hutt and Marist St. Pat's, if they don't win their second round matches on Saturday then they will need to break an almost decade and a half pattern to go on and be crowned champions after dropping their first match. They will also have to break a 10-year drought of no team making the final after being winless after the opening fortnight.

But as always, statistics and past results will be buried deep in clipboards when these four teams take the field on Saturday to do battle for the 13^th afternoon of club rugby in 2011 since it all started at Trentham Memorial Park back at the end of March.

Of the four first round losers, three play first round winners and two more, Marist St. Pat's and Upper Hutt, meet each other in another match with massive implications based on the above statistics.

This game at Evans Bay Park pits two of the teams that just a fortnight ago were fighting it out in the battle to secure their places in the top eight. MSP narrowly lost to Northern United 8-13 in last weekend's Jubilee Cup opener, a match they could've won if not for missed chances and a failure to capitalise on Norths being reduced to 14 players for 20 minutes. Upper Hutt missed out to Ories 38-7 so will need to quickly bounce back. Upper Hutt will also be out for revenge after being sunk 15-16 by a last-gasp MSP penalty when they met in round four of the Swindale Shield.

This week's other three matches see first round winners Poneke and Wainuiomata square off at Kilbirnie Park, Petone host Oriental-Rongotai at the Petone Recreation Ground and Northern United entertain Hutt Old Boys Marist at Porirua Park.

At Porirua Park, Hutt Old Boys Marist will be searching for something special to topple the first round champions, who themselves will be out to put together a n emphatic win after four less than comfortable performances on the trot against Ories (21-15),? Poneke (18-3), Poneke (32-32) and MSP (13-8).

Despite a possible wavering of their dominance over the past month, Norths are unbeaten since round two of last year's Jubilee Cup when Poneke managed to pip them 17-15. They are also unbeaten at Porirua Park since Tawa upset them 24-15 in the first round of the Jubilee Cup in 2009.

HOBM are coming off a 23-0 loss to Poneke, but this result was not a fair reflection of the game that saw the Eagles right in the contest for long periods and were unlucky not to have at least posted points on the scoreboard and put Poneke under more pressure. HOBM have struggled for ascendancy so far in 2011 with a 50 percent win/loss record and having lost twice in a row already twice this season. These two teams met back in round one at Trentham with Norths winning 34-17.

Victory for Ories over Petone would put them in a strong position to finally reach the semi-final stage after finishing sixth in 2008, fifth in 2009 and sixth again last year. The boys from Miramar have convincingly won their last two matches, beating Poneke 28-8 and then accounting for Upper Hutt 38-7.

Much like HOBM, Petone's form has been topsy-turvy all season. Their last three matches seeing them lose to Tawa 15-16 at the death, draw with behemoth Norths 32-32 and then lose 20-22 to Wainuiomata last week. If they want to feature in the final on their own patch, the Villagers need to prevail over Ories this weekend. Their first round fixture at the Polo Ground for the Jim Brown Memorial Shield saw Ories prevail 20-11.

Wainuiomata's fans are hoping their team can continue their fantastic form and knock off second round specialists Poneke at their home patch at Kilbirnie Park. For the staunch Poneke fan, their home field has been cruelly redeveloped so their players can now be picked out by their jersey numbers instead of the grin on their faces. Nevertheless, the red and blacks should relish a return home to take on the giant killing Wainuiomata side and this could be a great clash. In the first round Poneke took the Hakaraia Trophy off Wainuiomata in a 16-11 win.

In the Hardham Cup, if last weekend's opening barrage is anything to go by, all eight teams will be going in all guns blazing in week two.

This weekend shapes as a crucial one for Rimutaka and their quest for Swindale Shield promotion in 2012. To regain Premier status, Rimutaka must finish ahead of any of the four existing Premier teams - Old Boys University, Tawa, Avalon and the Wests Roosters.

Following a first-up 17-33 loss to Hardham Cup favourites OBU, the fledging Roosters could be ripe for the plucking for Rimutaka. But Wests will be a desperate side. With their next two matches after this being against a resurgent Avalon and OBU respectively, the Roosters could be gone. If not mathematically then mentally. ?

Meanwhile, Tawa and OBU meet in this week's Hardham Cup feature game at Lyndhurst Park, where Tawa also need to taste the scent of victory again or they could also be in trouble if Rimutaka also beat the Roosters. Tawa were well beaten by Avalon away in the first round, but should be much tougher at home at the lush surrounds of Lydhurst Park.

Avalon can steal a significant march on both Wests and Tawa if they travel to play one of the ‘B' teams, Poneke, at Kilbirnie Park. Despite Poneke beating Harper Lock Shield winners HOBM 9-0 in their opener, Avalon would see a loss to the red and blacks' second XV as a major blow to their campaign.

In the round's other match, Northern United B will be out to make it two from two against Hutt Old Boys Marist B in the early game at Porirua Park.

In other competitions, first round bonus point winners Petone and Ories clash in the early game at Petone Rec in the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup. First round bonus point winners Johnsonville meet MSP in the early match at Evans Bay Park, while Tawa and Paremata-Plimmeton will also seeking their second wins against OBU and Wainuiomata. First round winners OBU and Wellington meet at Hataitai Park at 2.15pm in the feature clash of the Senior 2 HD Morgan Memorial competition, while first round winners HOBM and Poneke clash at the main game at the Hutt Rec. In the Victoria Tavern Premier Women's competition, Eketahuna can make it five from five against defending champions Northern United at home at Eketahuna Field.