Key Swindale Shield weekend for chasing teams

It's sink or swim time now for the Swindale Shield strugglers who realistically all need to win in round eight to hold out any hope of making the second round top eight cut off, or the teams for the Jubilee Cup could all be effectively decided after this weekend's set of matches.

Three of the six Swindale Shield fixtures this week are between teams in the top half of the competition and teams placed in the bottom half - and if these all run to form then a date with the Hardham Cup could be all but sealed for the Wests Roosters, Wainuiomata, Old Boys-University and Avalon with three weeks still to play.

In Saturday's matches involving these four teams, the Roosters play Marist St. Pat's at Ian Galloway Park, Old Boys-University travel to play Norths at Porirua Park and Avalon does battle with Poneke at Fraser Park, while Wainuiomata hosts Tawa at William Jones Park. If all these matches turn out as the current form guide suggests then a 7-9 point gap will open up between the top eight and the bottom four.

Given their form to date, the task for both OBU against Norths and Avalon against Poneke appears much too great and they will be the first two teams to officially drop out of top contention if they lose this weekend.

The Roosters will earn a stay of reprieve if they can quickly bury their round seven Old Timers' Day 3-45 nightmare loss to Tawa and beat or at least pick up a bonus point against MSP. But they can also expect a MSP backlash following its 24-30 defeat at the hands of Oriental-Rongotai last week. MSP will be just as desperate to defeat Wests and remain in mathematical contention of defending their first round title. MSP, who have slipped to sixth are now 12 points off the pace being set by Petone, and after this encounter their fans will expect a win over Avalon and then hope for wins over their previous two Jubilee Cup final adversaries Hutt Old Boys Marist and Norths in the final fortnight.

This match between Wests and MSP is also for the Viv Haigh Memorial Cup, after the former Onslow club treasurer who died suddenly at the age of 46. This Cup was first contested between Onslow and Marist in 1960 and now these two clubs following amalgamations between 1971 and 1983.

Likewise Wainuiomata will be desperately searching for a win against the current eighth placed? Tawa at home in a significant match for not just these two teams, but those around them on the points table. Wainuiomata's record is one win from seven and realistically need to win this weekend against Tawa to keep their long stated Jubilee Cup aspirations alive. There's also much at stake for Tawa given that they have to turn and face both Petone and Ories in two of the final three weeks - making this match for the inaugural Chris Sterling Cup hugely important for each of their campaigns.

Wainuiomata's one win to date was 31-0 over Avalon in round three, while Tawa's comfortable seven tries to nil victory over Wests last week built upon their 46-7 win over Avalon in round two and their 29-20 win in round five over OBU.

This is also a re-run of last year's Hardham Cup final won by Tawa 33-20, after coming back from a 3-20 deficit to capture the 2008 Premier Two title. Playing into a biting southerly, Tawa clawed their way from their 17-point deficit and then held on at the end. That final was the fourth encounter between these sides since Wainuiomata's reintroduction into the top division in 2007, with Tawa winning two of the previously three they had played as well including twice at William Jones Park.

Meanwhile at the top end of the log, fifth placed HOBM host third placed Ories at the Hutt Recreation Ground, a fixture that carries no weight for the relegation battle but huge implications for the title aspirations of both sides.

Ories and HOBM, with respectively six and five wins so far, are safely inside the top eight, but losses for either will almost certainly see their title aspirations slip away. A key to picking a winner from this clash could be their season 09 attacking resumes. Ories are one converted try away from becoming the second side after Norths to register 300 points for 2009, while the Eagles with 165 points from their seven games are seventh out of the leading eight teams in putting points on the board.

Leaders Petone and seventh placed Upper Hutt contest the Connolly Cup at the Petone Recreation Ground, where Petone will have the chance to extend their lead at the top of the table and start to prepare their trophy cabinet in preparation for the Swindale Shield's likely return. A win for Upper Hutt would secure their spot inside the top eight for the second round, while the worst outcome for them from this match would be dropping from seventh to eighth.

Marist St. Pat's can also start finding space for the Senior One Harper Lock Shield title, which they will almost certainly win if they complete their eighth consecutive victory over Stokes Valley at Delaney Park. With four rounds to go, MSP hold a commanding 11-point lead over the chasing pack and will be favoured to collect a bonus point win against low ranking Stokes Valley.

The match of the round in the Harper Lock Shield this week is between Rimutaka and Poneke at Maoribank Park at 3pm. Rimutaka and Poneke are joint second on the ladder, with Rimutaka narrowly ahead on points differential. This match is a key one for Rimutaka's Hardham Cup aspirations. If four ‘B' teams make it to the Hardham Cup ahead of either Rimutaka and fifth placed Johnsonville then no team can be relegated from the Premier grade this season.

Fourth placed Ories will be favoured to either join or leapfrog the loser of the Rimutaka-Poneke clash with them taking on tenth placed HOBM at the Hutt Recreation Ground in round eight. Johnsonville will also have the chance to move into top four contention when they play eighth placed Paremata-Plimmerton at Ngatitoa Domain.

In the Senior Two National Mutual Cup, leaders MSP play seventh placed Wests, second placed Norths play sixth placed OBU and third placed Tawa meet ninth placed Wainuiomata.

In the Women's Premier grade, Johnsonville have their bye, presenting the opportunity for Norths to join them or overtake them after round eight with a win or bonus point win over bottom placed Wainuiomata. Third placed OBU will keep in touch of these two if they win on the road against fifth placed Eketahuna.

It's also the fourth week of the first round Paris Memorial Trophy in the U21 grade. Upper Hutt are the only unbeaten side through three rounds and they lead a chasing pack of four teams who have two wins from their three games.

In U21 games on Saturday, Upper Hutt host third placed Petone at Maidstone Park in a top of the table clash, while second placed MSP Red and fifth placed OBU square off in another big encounter.

This is an eight-team competition, played over a seven week round robin series.

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